SD is exploring the Miss by drilling wells in pods of 4. They are drilling on average a certain number of new wells each mouth and trying to identify the areas where there is the most oil production.
Can a simulation be done to estimate the average new production of each well?
I will try and sketch the simulation.
Divide up the Miss. current exploration acreage into several large areas to be explored.
Divide up the large areas into exploration quadrants. Assume that half the areas have high oil production and half the areas have low oil production (give them an average value).
Start the simulation by using the average number of new wells drilled a month.
If the first well drilled is in a quadrant with high oil production...drill 3 more wells for the pod and allocate more equipment to the area (take the equipment from an area that had low oil production).
If a well is drilled in a quadrant with low oil production ...take the equipment and move it to an untested quadrant within the same area. If a high oil production quadrant is not hit after 5 attempts within a area...no more exploratory well are drilled in the area. The area is no longer explored.. Move equipment to other ..unexplored areas or to quadrants in productive areas.
OF course this simulation could be made to be very sophisticated. Optimum Area Sizes and Quadrants need to be determined. Instead of drilling only 1 well in an area to determine if the Area is productive, several attempts may be tried. There may be a threshold that determines when a area is determined to be highly productive etc 3 of 5 wells having a certain rate of oil production.
I think if someone could successfully create the simulation it could be very enlightening and give surprising results on the upside.. jmho
sorry if I got anyone nervous about how a real good computer simulation can significantly change the exploration strategy in the Miss. and significantly increase the boepd output of each new well drilled.
Based upon the ratings...at least 1 short is a little scared. I have done some real simulations myself and am very much aware how effective they are and how complicated information can be derived using queuing theory, statistical parameters etc etc, minor random events, random events over a range (i.e. a well production occurs over a range within an area or quadrant... ideal for what the new Miss exploration is all about...imho
Forgot some important remarks for TPG ...if they are listening...
1, Hire a good statistician who knows simulation who can create a good simulation..
2. Need to optimize concept of areas and quadrants.
3. Need to optimize how many wells drilled in an area before area is shut down.
4. Need to optimize when to move equipment to a productive area or when its moved to an unexplored areas.
5. Need to drill 3 additionl wells in the quadrant...at least. Minimum for a POD.
6. TPG....when you get the simulation perfected ...run it with available data...implement it in the field.
time, you care cracking me up. tpg doesn't need our input at all. they are far more expert in this than we can ever be. and i can assure you that for the 220 million or so they have in this, they are infinitely more sophisticated in their analysis than anything we can come up with here. they have teams of brilliant people working on this.