SD is 85% owned by insiders and institutional investors (per Yahoo). Therefore, a deal would have to be struck with any potential buyer. Stock performance has been less than desirable. Say an offer came in over the weekend. What level would would you accept?
$6 = 20% gain: 0 votes
$6.5 = 30% gain: 0 votes
$7 = 40% gain: 1 vote
North of $7: 0 votes
Good luck longs...
Buyout will not occur unless its significantly north of 7. Most shareholders, including large funds, have bought their holdings significantly north of 7. So why would these shareholders take so little after the viability of the Miss. play has been proved? Only recently has the shares dropped from over $8, so going back to $8 is no
deal for most players.
I think most shareholders are looking for a lot more for their shares. I do not think the buyout will happen until the shares move significantly higher ..example $8-$9 a share based upon improving balance sheet and results of lMiss. exploration. After that happens I think TPG looks for a buyer at $10-$14 per share based upon new information on the Miss. play. Don't forget they are just beginning to explore their vast holdings and the price will go up as they hit more productive areas. The probability of this happening is very high imho.
My thoughts to a T
The "big Money" payoff will be,.. 6 to 9 months,.. MINIMUM, before TPG starts looking for a Buyer!
The Miss production will be THE KEY factor!
Earnings MUST come,..FIRST and come Aug 6th,.. they start to FLOW
Most "big Funds" in SD from $6.20 to $8.40 averages!
TPG will make sure Mt Kellett ($8.00+ ave) makes some money= $10.00 bare ASSZZ,.. MINIMUM!
We think,..alike, buddy!