If things erode into a war in Ukraine it will have an immediate impact on oil, gold, and many other commodities. Why? Simply put, we may focus on the geographical region of the Ukraine but there is no target which Putin will ignore be it on US soil, western europe, etc.
Further, a war will encourage by essentially offering up a green light to other beligerants like N. Korea, Syria, and numerous unruly gangs like hezzbolah and countless others. Not to mention activating a land grab from China against the contested islands with Japan and possbily parts of SE Asia. A real WW III could ensue with one simple spark in Ukraine.
Taking into consideration, the above, one can not write off the Ukranian situation.
Is it time to dig out a new bomb shelter like our Grand Parents in the 1950/60's? No, however, it might be time to sleep with one eye open regarding everything, including your cyber security, bank accounts, etc. Investments? Well there is the dilemma! To pre-empt or not? Too many events have NOT come to fruition to even suggest selling into cash is the solution. Remember the 2000 scare? Amidst the dotcom debacle? How about the second worst economic event in US history a few years back? Yet here we all are watching a raging bull market!
I don't think raising some cash with perhaps some selective selling is unwise! The challenge, what to sell in order to maintain a sleep factor at night when you call it a day! I have no clue HOWEVER, I do want to be able to take advantage of a meaningful downswing REGARDLESS of its cause! Though INCHING in may be the prudent approach depending upon the catalyst that causes said downswing.
So be wise....be prudent....don't hide for the rest of your life becasue whatever does happen, will come to an end an an economic rebirth will follow if indeed, the world comes to a temporary end! All IMHO.........
War over eastern Ukraine???...pffft. Nobody except Putin gives a #$%$ about Ukraine, for sure the Europeans (esp. Germany) don't give a #$%$. Korea and the Middle East hold much greater potential for war. Putin doesn't want war, he wants what he can take for FREE and since Ukraine has fallen apart financially, it is Putin's for the taking. Sanctioning Russia won't amount to a hill of beans, not as long as Europe needs the energy. Trust me on this, the only people who are "screwed" are the Ukrainians. They blew-it by borrowing and spending to much like the rest of those small socialist countries in the EU did.
Of course I hope you are correct, you'll note my openming of "IF things erode....". Of course human history is littered with wars that could have been avoided and if one were to start in said region of the world, it wouldn;t be the first.
I don't trust PUTIN, nor whatever deals he has struck with the Chinese and my real fear is if things do erode in Ukraine, this represents a GREENLIGHT to all other malcontents and beligerants thinking the US will be too pre-occupied to bother with places like N.Korea, IRAN, IRAQ, AFGHAN., SYRIA and others.
Sketching out the worst case scenario often helps when one is trying to consider damage control/impact/actions/solutions.even when it comes to investing! No one likes the element of surprise the problem is, too few consider the threat until its too late. I sincerely hope you are correct!
So far, todays elbowing contest betwen Putin and the West is similar to the Cuban Misslie crisis.....and my word of caution is, never bet on an enemies actions, plan for all courses of action, plan for all solutions/compromises, in otherwords, know the game and recognize the cards you hold which define the cards your enemy does not hold.