"AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta in its forty-third full week ended March 24 were 30,470, of which 17,664 were new prescriptions down from 30,697 total and 17,927 new Rxs respectively in the prior week. With 1-month starter packs being provided to key prescribers, we believe that these numbers underestimate true patient starts.
Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ended March 24 were 2,669 with new Rxs of 1,216, up from 2,535 total and 1,176 new Rxs in the prior week. Overall, more than 41,000 new prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its first nine months of launch.
% increases will make many of the "predicitions"(hopes)look silly.In order to acheive the 100 dollar- you need to get to say 1.5 B in revenues,which should be late 2007/2008,depending on Symlin also. I dont see it.A good stock,great drugs,but like analysts- kinda silly when you have information tight in front of you. 300-550M this year and 2 more years,then enter LAR (say mid 2008- for the expected revenues. This run,like others will correct , oh ! I shouldnt have said that ! -sorry- not possible wont happen - to 100 this year - sheeeeze
"One swallow does not a summer make." I am letting my prediction stand as I did not make it on the basis of what happens with the script numbers this week. There are a lot of intangibles that can account for the flatening of the script numbers but there is too much good data out there to think that suddenly people are going to level out their use of Byetta. I'm still looking ahead at the ADA meeting, the LARS study, a European launch and time for the marketing effort to get more fully in place in the US. As far as profits go, I don't anticipate much at this time. Personally, I would rather Amylin be using their money to increase marketing efforts and get this drug into the hands of more primary care docs. JMHO and have a good week. Sam.
I see no reason why AMLN cannot exceed $100 long before your valuation scheme arises. In fact, I fully expect AMLN to exceed $100 SEVERAL or MANY times before 100 becomes a support level. In other words, exceeding $100 only means AMLN is worth a hundred bucks to SOMEBODY - not necessarily the market as a whole.