Amylin In The Year 2015 and 2nd Half Of The Decade ?
If Amylin is still around in the year 2015, it could be the top company that dominates the diabetes world in the 2nd half of this decade. Here is why:
1) By 2015, the JDRF and Amylin could have a Pramlintide/Insulin Co-formulation entering the Type I market and that combination could make it the drug of choice over insulin alone. Amylin could dominate the Diabetes Type I market in the 2nd half of the decade !
2) By 2015, Lilly and Amylin should have both Bydureon and Exenatide Once Monthly (Brand Name ?) selling in the Type II market and these drugs could become the drugs of choice over all other GLP-1 medication and most oral medications. Lilly and Amylin could dominate the Diabetes Type II market in the 2nd half of the decade.
3) By 2015, Biocon and Amylin should also have their promising diabetes drug candidate that will be entering Phase I testing in the 1Q 2012, very close to regulatory approval if all goes well.
The potential for Amylin over the next 4 years and over the remainder of this decade is huge and it will all come down to execution. Hopefully Amylin has learned a valuable lesson from their checkered history getting Symlin, Byetta and Bydureon approved in the U.S and will handle things differently going forward.
Obviosuly the $ billion question is whether or not Amylin will be around in 2015 as an independent company or if they will be working as a subsidiary company under another large Pharmaceutical Company ?
I did say that hopefully Amylin has learned a lesson from its past. I am willing to give Amylin until Bydureon approval, after which time I expect and demand as an investor that we start seeing a new Amylin, taking a new and different approach. The new Amylin may require new management or at least a new CEO. Let's see what happens right after Bydureon is approved and if we don't see a change, but just more of the same, then I agree that statement that "if it is not Amylin".