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Pretium Resources Inc. Message Board

  • lookahead22 lookahead22 Feb 10, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Gold Price future prediction by someone

    Just for the fun of it.

    Here are the predicted gold price at the beginning of each year:

    2000 $227
    2001 $253
    2002 $283
    2003 $321
    2004 $366
    2005 $424
    2006 $496
    2007 $589
    2008 $710
    2009 $871
    2010 $1088
    2011 $1391
    2012 $1820
    2013 $2448
    2014 $3395
    2015 $4875
    2016 $7281
    2017 $11373
    2018 $18696
    2019 $32585
    2020 $60732
    2021 $122282
    2022 $269180
    2023 $657081
    2024 $1808878
    2025 $5729891
    2026 $21393961
    2027 $96922638
    2028 $551752538
    2029 $4117951478
    2030 $42432117258
    2031 $643095397723
    2032 $15496496353283
    2033 $653666758246583
    2034 $54394327243789272
    2035 $10366883493432037000
    2036 $5457952337977050900000
    2037 $10056871029092433000000000
    2038 $87590357345760759000000000000
    2039 $5293590801890312200000000000000000
    2040 $3636656640548935800000000000000000000000

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • 20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire - The Economic Collapse

      By Michael Snyder, on February 13th, 2014

      The next two years (2014 and 2015) are going to represent a major "turning point" for the global economy. By the end of 2015, things are going to look far different than they do today.

      None of the problems that caused the last financial crisis have been fixed. Global debt levels have grown by 30 percent since the last financial crisis, and the too big to fail banks in the United States are 37 percent larger than they were back then and their behavior has become even more reckless than before.

      As a result, we are going to get to go through another "2008-style crisis", but I believe that this next wave is going to be even worse than the previous one.

      So hold on tight and get ready. We are going to be in for quite a bumpy ride.

    • and his formula

      Yes this formula, derived by me, predicts gold price precisely over the last 12 years.

      It does not predict the day to day movements. But long term, the gold price is pretty right on spot precisely where the predicted price trend is. See the chart.

      But first here is how the formula is derived. It applies accurately to ALL hyperinflations ever occured in human history, including the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe inflation.

      Let's consider how inflation happens. Gold is considered a constant valuation. Gold price appreciation indicates inflation, nothing more and nothing less.
      The gold price can be written in the following generic formula, which is generally correct, as prices change in percentage, i.e. geometric term. You just need to choose the proper time dependent function Y(T):

      P = P0 * exp(Y(T))

      The time function Y(T) increases over time. The increase of Y(T) is the inflation and depreciation of the currency. So let's look at what Y(T) should look like.

      In the constant inflation scenary, gold price should increase the same percentage each year, therefore Y(T) would simply be proportional to the time, t, therefore

      Y(T) = C*T (constant inflation)

      But the inflation is not constant. At first, there is almost no inflation. And then inflation increases over time. The rate of inflation also increases in percentage term. Thus Y(T) = exp(y(T)). So we should write gold price as:

      P = P0 * exp(exp(y(T))),

      with an increasing y(T) reflect increasing inflation rate.

      Finally, the acceleration of inflation itself is not a constant. The faster the inflation accelerates, the faster they need to print more money and it speed up the acceleration of inflation further. So we expect that y(T) itself increases geometrically. Thus we can expect that acceleration of inflation is:

      y(t) = exp(C*(T-T0))

      Put everything together, we obtain an elegant math formula of gold price under inflation. Elegant because there are only two adjustable parameters:

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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