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Trinity Industries Inc. Message Board

  • wherzthebid wherzthebid Feb 20, 2009 9:27 AM Flag

    Listen to TRN's conference call, this is what I heard...

    Boys, take the time and listen to the TRN conference call...one thing that stood out to me on the CC was when one analysis asked Tim Wallace CEO of TRN...

    "It seems that trinity is operating it's current business mostly off it's "Backlog" when it comes to the "Rail-car Business" and "Wind-tower Business"...Barge Biz is holding so far, but new orders are slowing as well, that is the reason that Q1, 2009' guidance came in from 25-35 cents to 20-30 cents, another noteworthy..

    That is to say that little to no new orders are coming in to operate the second half of the year on.....Tim replied ..."you seem to have it right"

    Boys IMO, that is why TRN is not issuing any full year earnings guidance...because new business has dropped off to nothing...the backlog will have been depleted or canceled by Q3 and Q4 2009' and without a Macro economic recovery soon, TRN will have big problems going into the second half of this year....consider that it takes TRN 6-9 months out to book "earnings" from any new orders!!

    That is way the diehard-funds are moving out of this stock of now...

    I told you all, the word was that Trinity's management is not looking for a recovery until mid-to-late 2010'..

    Da-Bid is a Fly on the wall..

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    • Trinity is a survivor, it will survive and thrive! If your plan is short term this is not your stock. If long term, steel and railroads rule! Debt will be worked out like all companies!!

    • booya.kaash, didn't you say, you've been in this business for 30 years??

      Here's a News flash for you....Don't depend on Google for accurate financial info...

      Fact is, due to TRN's business-mix it has little to no pure sector peers...although, KBR and STRL are much more of a fit, then the rail stocks you "googled".....TRN being mostly a industrial steel Fabrication company other then the Construction Products group concrete, aggregates, and asphalt...

      Fact is TRN has more of a debt/equity ratio then anyone that closely resembles it, period!

      Da_Bid

    • How convenient. I list the entire question, 1/5 of the answer from the CEO and reach a grandiose conclusion. And then tell everybody that the company is in trouble. Trinity is not the only company not providing a full year guidance; please google and you'll see how many other companies, blue chip and otherwise, are not providing any future guidance. Here is a full year guidance. The economy is on a precipice and the markets might go down another 20 percent or so.

      The die-hard funds are not only ones moving out of this stock. They are moving out of many other stocks, blue chip or otherwise.

      Folks, do you own due diligence. If the stock matches your investment profile, go long or short. You will do yourself a big favor if you ignore posts that provide incomplete information and try to spook you by saying that they have insider information as to what Trinity's management is thinking.

      Fly in the wall, my .........

      • 1 Reply to booya.kaasha
      • booya.kaash...You seem to have a bias view, that can only be explained by you being upsidedown (in a long position) on this stock/TRN....so I beleive it is you that is tring to "mislead" others on this board!!

        If you note, the heading of my post is asking everyone to listen to the conference call themselves, so the "due-diligence", is in our own "ability" to extract a "unbiased" view whether we have any position in the stock at all...

        As far as, you claiming, that I say, I have "Inside" info...Well I do...I have insider "sector" info just as others have stated here as well...

        Do you think if TRN's management thought things was coming back within the next 6-9 months, and servicing huge debt was not a issue, that they would be closing/Idling four manufacturing yards, laying off good employees???....No, if the overloaded-debt was not a issue, they would ride the next 6-12-18 months out....

        Look at it this way, do you know how long it will take, to re-ramp a yard for manufacturing/, equipment and employees??...at lease 6 months, then figure another 6-9 months of fabrication, just to delivery...

        Stating to get the picture?? New Jobs/Bids in the sector are being fought over right now, which will lead to tighter margins, i.e. profits suffer, just to keep other yards operating, and emplyees working..


        Whether you like it or not, TRN is having problems with sustaining new jobs/business going into the second half of this year/2009'...which by the way, others within the sector are having, as well...so if you choose not to acknowledge the "tell-tale-signs" that others and myslef are sharing with this board, well so be it...not everyone is cut out for leading, but, you'll always have Cramer right?

        1.04 debt to equity, will only work in a booming economy, and is not viable, in a prolonged downturn...

        Da_Bid is a Fly on the wall...... and you are?

    • One thing is sure. Everything they make will be needed again and the demand will be greater than ever to make up for the lean years.

      • 1 Reply to smitty4968
      • I agree with that, and I am still long. But I have friends in the short line RR biz, in the mid south- They tell me they get phone calls every day from CSX and rail car owners (GATX, etc), asking if my friend's RR has space to store rail cars. They had a bunch of brand new tank cars in their yard Wednesday. I read I think on the UNP board that UP has idled 1200 locomotives, and stored 40,000 railcars. Think about what happened with the Baltic Dry Index going to 650 last month (its back to 2000 now). Basically all ocean going bulk and a lot of container shipping stopped in the 4th quarter. A lot that comes in on ships gets transferred to railcars to get to its destination. I would love to know how many trains per day are moving east-west on transcon RRs- anyone know?

        I remember when I knew the recovery was happening back in 03. I was driving across I-40 from Memphis to LA. The trains were backed up both ways, running at less than 10min. intervals. That won't happen this time until mid 2010 at the earliest, IMO. And a shootload of railcars got built in this cycle- all those in storage need to start moving before new orders come in-

    • The no guidance phrase did me in, I had to sell after hearing that. It could turn out like MWA, MIC and others in the $2 and $3 range. GL longs.

    • da bid is right, and if you go back and look at serpentine's post on 2-18 you'll see that she has figured out the same thing.

      • 1 Reply to serpentine290
      • This issue is not unique to Trinity. The issue is global. I work in business and all companies are not ordering anything and every project is on hold. At some point the trend will reverse, some companies will step up and start spending again and earnings will improve. 2010 may be the timing of it all, but come on, this stock is already priced for that. This is not a $5 stock. That would be absurd!!

 
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