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Trinity Industries Inc. Message Board

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  • serpentine290 serpentine290 May 1, 2009 3:07 PM Flag

    12,362,500 short shares to cover!

    It is 3:00 the day after announcements and so far volume is very low. It seems these shorts are willing to stare you down. The truth is I sold yesterday at $14.49. The next couple of quaters are going to be a disaster and I will take a new position after the crash.

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    • "The next couple of quarters are going to be a disaster and I will take a new position after the crash."

      HUH? IMO you are a year late. We are over the hump, the next couple of quarters will be UP significantly.

      • 2 Replies to lionelman17
      • Lionel...
        Did you or others get a chance to listen to the conference call? If so, did they say anything about forward guidance & whether some of this stimulus money is starting to show up.

      • Hello Lionel,
        You are right, a year ago TRN was around 40 but that was due to all the excitement about oil prices, wind energy etc. TRN is likely to establish a new range, (maybe $5-$20). That range reflects realistic valuations on anticipated earnings. It will take at least a couple of years to achieve the full economic recovery that results in $140/barrel. Until a full recovery is in hand we will not see rail car sales or construction material pick up. The stimulus package for infrastructure will not save TRN from a difficult medium term future. There is very little money for highways or railways in the bill. Until a full recovery is achieved, TRN is just a well managed, cyclical company in a bad economy. Backlog is diminishing, plants are closing, customers are scarce and saavy; the next few quarters are going to be ugly for TRN. Longer term you are probably right, but the market is going to react to the the bad news that is coming over the next 1-5 quarters.

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