There's a few things in play with the railroads right now. Imports from Asia slowed down with the slowing economy, but now as people feel more confident they are poised to pick up with higher shipping volumes. On top of that you are coming into crop season, and guess who needs to move grains around the country. Ethanol production is also high with all the new plants and federal mandate. Also with coal being semi-low utility companies are buying additional coal to stockpile in their yards. All this will translate back to TRN. It may be a couple quarters before it fully shows up, but the tide with the economy is turning.
Read an article about rail manufacturer business picking up.
The topic centered on rail travel and they didn't mention TRN. I think that's because we aren't in the passenger travel segment, but in materials transportation area. Same reasoning should apply for us too, right?
You are correct. According to this mornings jobs numbers, railroad car sales are set to explode as hoardes of 21st century hobos take to the rails in search of a job that pays a living wage. Things are worse than our government will admit. Do you know that 46% of all money expended by the Federal Government this year is borrowed? Imagine that 46%. Why, and how long can that continue. Beware of rosy predictions of green shoots in the economy and a market turnaround. Especially beware of talking heads who pump stocks and then sell into small money raillies. Do not let big money take your money!!!!!!!
Not sure I share your pessimism completely but you make strong well reasoned points. Where (and why) are you parking your assets these days? All cash? Gold or other commodities? Bonds? I am about 50% equities (lots of REITs, a very risky proposition but with potentially huge rewards)and the rest split between cash and bonds. Personally I don't see TRN soaring nor do I see it at $8 but who knows for sure.
What do you do for a living? Full time trader or working person?
Something like 30% of all railcars in america are in storage at the moment. ALL shortline RRs are storing railcars, in some cases, filling entire branch lines full. I was just in Montana, and there are intermodal container cars in storage on the mainline all the way from Great Falls down to Helena. I was just in Minnesota, and there are cars stored there from the AOK (Arkansas and Oklahoma) RR. Shortlines in Tennessee and all over are full of stored railcars. All those stored cars have to start moving out before railcar orders will pick up
You not seen the durable goods orders today? Surprise jump. Economy is getting better, more stuff has to be moved around. Also don't forget this alternative energy bill running through Congress, should benefit TRN in Wind. Boats/Barges demand will pick up too. Things here look positive.
Well that's good news, means less competition and a possible switch to American based rail car manufactures. Low steel prices should help intial costs too. As the economy picks up I think railroads and railcars will too. When things turn, they'll turn quick. Also remember Trinity's other businesses will pick up too with a rebounding economy.