Let me help you here Lionel! The 40 million is real money like it exists, it is not imaginary, it can be spent. But 40 million over 3 years is not money to a company doing 3.5 billion per year. Sorry you are having so much trouble with this idea, it seems pretty simple.
A $40 million barge order over three years does not move the stock of a company that does $3.5 billion in sales each year. There is no meaningful stimulus money for TRN. The stock has made a great move up but not on stimulus money. It looks like the stock moves as a proxy on the recovery. When good news is released, TRN moves up. When bad numbers are released TRN falls. If a recovery is truly underway it looks like TRN holders will be big winners. If this apparent recovery is a headfake then TRN holders will be booking some losses. Use a stop loss.
this stock sells at a real discount to book value.
Book value is over $ 25 per share and tangible book value(assets -liabilities-goodwill) is $19 per share.
Amazing that a profitable company is selling so cheap!
Wish I had more cash to buy more.
This stock is likely to beat earnings by a penny or two because they acted quickly to cut costs and because estimates are very bleak. What is moving the price of this stock? I would be nervous because there doesn't appear to be any real catalyst. Read the stimulus bill-no money there. Railroad cars-which is their chief line of business-are stacked up all over the place. Wind projects scaling back or stopping. Someone finds out that a Trinity site receives a tax break for development, and someones wispers that TRN beats earnings, an upgrade from a small house. Enough to pump and dump a small money rally but no real changes here. TRN will beat estimates by a couple pennies and begin to sell off. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. I am truly happy for anyone who made a few dollars on this thing but it has no legs.