What you have to remember is this. Company is now profitable and has given guidance for 2013 based on existing business. Guidance includes no new licenses or expectations beyond the recent Samsung deal.
When you have a 99% gross profit margin, and you announce a new deal (or deals with several OEM's and collaborators in discussions and about to release new products), the net proceeds of the deal go directly to EPS - which means an exciting ride for a while to come. There are still several big fish (in mobility alone) that have been freeloading, not including all the other industries and products that could utilize haptics, by means of a legitimate license.
Big wild card here is Sony Playstation 4. They played up Rumble at the announcement. Vic specifically said at settlement time that a new contract would be necessary for future consoles. PS4 will be huge later this year, and that should all be new business not currently in the guidance.
The problem is landing the big fish. Just as every deal increases the PPS, every lawsuit decreases it. I don't think we can expect an avalanche of Samsungs out there waiting to give it up so easily. IMMR is probably going to have to blow a wad on lawyers.
Given the current guidance, it appears to me to be trading around where it should.
However, if you have an extra couple dozen million sitting around with nothing to do, and wish to immediately drive up the PPS, I won't complain.
I would generally agree with you that we should not expect an avalanche of settlements, and nothing will be easy with big OEMs. HOWEVER, Samsung deal changed the game going forward and IMHO has clearly tilted the playing field in IMMR favor. The trend is UP, and if Vic has good sense, the 44-49 mil number is soft (ie under promise and over deliver from here on out). With such a sea state change, who cares if he is sandbagging a bit, I sure hope he is. Shareholders are glad to see double digits again - my guess is the numbers are soft, while products using haptics seem to be increasing, product cycles seem to be decreasing, ASPs are rising, and more important - competition among OEMs to differentiate and 1 up the market is fierce. With no debt, legal warchest, profitable, and a 99% profit margin model, I like the view from here, for a while.