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IDT Corporation Message Board

  • oneCarmel oneCarmel Sep 22, 1998 4:55 PM Flag

    Technical Analysis Update 3

    The target of 22 was met. Volume on Sept. 22nd is
    twice daily average. Earnings up coming and IBM
    announcement notwithstanding, 729 trades today at 890 shares
    per trade, average, means the individual investor was
    jumping in, feet first. Not a good sign. A move from 15
    to 22 is approx. 50% return on capital in just 3
    weeks. Annualized, you're Warren Buffett. Very good
    short term trade. Very bad for near term. We're in a
    bear market where alot of money is made, but no repeat
    price movement ala Jan. to Apr. 1998. Have cash ready
    to buy IDTC again in the coming weeks 18-20 range.

    • Based on my experience, I would expect no less than a $2.00 move based on their
      recommendation. However, you never know for certain obviously. The stock has been up big lately so it
      may seem unlikely, but there are many many people and institutions that ONLY buy after
      they get a buy signal and or the stock passes its 50 day MA.

      IMO the buying
      yesterday was a result of the ibm deal. Traders and institutional buyers who subscribe to a real
      time news service jumped in big.

      As I said would happen yesterday, in my post 3636,
      if we closed above the 50 day MA (21 3/4), buy signals would be generated
      and "we
      would be at $24 in no time". Consequently, IMO the buying today was from traders tha use the
      passing of the 50 day MA as a buy signal.

      The reason I said $24, was because I knew
      that that would be the next resistance point. That is because just barely under $24 we hit
      our 100 day MA and just at $24 we hit our 200 day MA. I'm sure you noted today that
      several times we bounced off those numbers or just made it over and then back.

      Check
      this
      chart.
      http://www.askresearch.com/cgi-bin/chart?symbol=idtc&exchange=USA&size=640x480&m
      onths=6+months&type=Bar&color=Graph+Paper&logscale=on&moving=exponential&moving1
      =50+day&moving2=100+day&moving3=200+day&bollinger=20+day&sto=15-5-5&wpr=12&rsi=8
      &chart=macd&macd=12-25-9&roc=16-8&mfi=13



      Tomorrow we get the Dorsey recommendation. The combination of that recommendation, an up market
      and pre earnings buying could very well be explosive.

      What has to happen though is
      that we must solidly pass this resistance. From that point, there is little resistance
      before $30

      Now, having said that, if someone decided to short 300,000 shares tomorrow,
      we're in trouble.

      Anyway, no one knows for sure what will haappen ever. We just have
      to do the best DD we can.

      Best regards to all.

    • I thought earnings were to be released Friday?
      That is what I saw on AOL online investor. Also, one
      strong buy was already put
      out on Friday or Monday.
      If investor interest continues like it
      has in
      the previous days and with the earnings, we should
      see
      $28 or $29 by Monday. Good luck.

    • kennedy_style_entrepreneur kennedy_style_entrepreneur Sep 23, 1998 8:43 PM Flag

      It is not necessary to repeat all of
      the
      upside factors that i have posted
      about previously. I
      have the distinct
      hunch that something very
      important
      is happening in support of the stock.
      IBM and
      thoughts of a broader relationship?
      Growing feeling
      that earnings could be
      a surprise home run shocker?
      Massive
      shortseller covering because of
      justified panic about the
      prospect
      of an IMB deal or earnings blast off?

      From
      now until the days after the
      earnings figures are
      released, I
      have an undefinable feeling that
      it could
      be a splendid time to
      be long and the nightmare
      from
      hell to be short.

    • kennedy_style_entrepreneur kennedy_style_entrepreneur Sep 23, 1998 8:35 PM Flag

      based on your experience, when would
      you guess
      the buy rec. would have
      impact on the stock price?
      Today
      if word got out? Tomorrow as
      separate
      report comes out? Or does it take
      more time to work
      through merrill,
      etc., to their customers.

    • Thanks for posting their chart. Just so everyone
      knows though, Dorsey is doing a seperate analysis and
      recommendation to ALL of their institutional clients tomorrow
      morning, highly rec. IDTC as a strong buy.

      THAT,
      should move the stock.

      Best regards.

    • Dorsey Wright appears to be well regarded and
      supplies many major brokerage houses, including DLJ,
      Merrill, and Prudential. They appear to be primarily point
      and figure chartists, a technique invented many years
      ago but unfamiliar to most investors. I have use P&F
      charting for many years. My experience is that it is not
      very useful in picking absolute tops and bottoms, but
      is highly effective in establishing trends, changes
      in trends, and picking price targets. FWIW

    • They are highly regarde. Normally you could
      expect a good move after they back something. However,
      there is NO guarentee. We could wake up tomorrow and
      find the markets in the tank again. I suggest you call
      them like I did. I spoke to a gentlemen named Jay, who
      was very helpful.

      Best regards.

    • Looked at site. Gather they are chartists
      providing information to institutions.
      Interesting.

      How have their recomendations performed in the past,
      especially short term? (Like tommorrow)

      With a 33%
      run up in past 3 days I'm fearful of adding to my
      position, although the 5 day chart looks good. What do you
      think?

    • <p.s. May I have your permission to email
      you(off topics)? I don't want to infringe on your
      privacy... >

      Yes, of course . I would enjoy
      hearing from you.

      Good luck with your latest
      purchase.

    • Thanks for the info. I just brought another 5000
      shares today. In addition, I placed a limit order for
      more shares at 23.625... If the earnings are
      spectacular, we may see an explosion to the upside soon. This
      stock reminds me of AMZN. I brought it earlier this
      year at $33.00 a share and sold it at over $100.00 So
      I know what the internet frenzy is all about. There
      is a good chance this frenzy might also happen to
      IDTC...


      Thanks for the good work and keep it
      up.

      rx-usa

      p.s. May I have your permission to email you(off
      topics)? I don't want to infringe on your privacy...

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