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Millennial Media Inc. (MM) Message Board

  • newsnowcrow newsnowcrow Dec 23, 2013 6:29 PM Flag

    Question for long-time (disgusted) longs and new, REAL investors...

    Not the #$%$ pumper/basher crowd:

    How different do you think the PPS, & overall "view" of MM would be IF....BIG IF...when they (MM) originally IPO'd ...AND SET GUIDANCE....at such levels so as to have "met or beat" the numbers?....instead of the "Palmeri pie-in-the-sky" circus routine he gave on Cramer? And...furthermore...IF...MM had lowered guidance ahead of time, (or adjusted their thinking to match what the analysts were expecting/hoping)...where might we be now?

    IMO....at least 50% of the absolutely cra###y performance is due to terrible management, lousy investor relations, and lack-luster ability to get name recognition.
    The other 50% is Palpuke and his band of dolts at the top keep making ridiculous inferences and MISS THE GD####M numbers!

    He!!....LOWER EXPECTATIONS and then "blow away" the numbers!!! duh!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • What if the folks at MM are actually good at what they do? Instead of 2x sales valuation you get 20x sales valuation. That's the bet. Everything else is #$%$.

    • Agree with mismanagement of guidance but business plan was incorrect. The purchase of Jumptap honestly saved MM. The short position was correct because MM was losing business to competition. Jumptap gives MM the ability to match and luckily they kept kept growing slower but kept their customers. Now the truth will be revealed. No more excuses are acceptable from PP. This Q has to be a revenue beat and it will indicate the direction of MM for the year. I purchased another 1000 shares in this dip and my core position has not sold one share. In addition I like others are waiting for data points to load up even more. This investment is either a diamond or a dud. Risk Reward is incredible.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Guidance is a huge deal. MM is a debt free company that is relatively breaking even in a "sexy" industry. That is extremely desirable. What has killed MM is not meeting expectations and taking too long to turn the profit corner. That said, re-read the MM earnings transcript from Q2 2013. They gave guidance that Q3 would not be a great quarter due to the growing pains of incorporating Jumptag. Did people listen? No. I personally sold my shares before the earnings call and rebought once MM got slashed down closer $6. Now the big question is which quarter is going to be the breakout quarter. I think it comes in the next three.

    • bartholemew_cornbunkle bartholemew_cornbunkle Dec 23, 2013 11:06 PM Flag

      Just to be clear, I'm not a "real" investor here, whatever that means. This is just a trade, until and unless MM proves they can execute. I'm all for believing the story once I've been shown good reasons to.

      Not to be mean, but for disgruntled long time longs sitting on big percent losses, it's important to understand that the simple act of lengthening one's timeframe until one is "proven right" does *not* make one a "real" investor (again, whatever that means).

      On the post-JT conference call, PP said something to the effect that "we get it" as far as rev misses disappointing investors. On the most recent cc, he said "the proof is in the pudding". He seems to be talking the talk that execution matters. Now we need to see them walk the walk. And just because the industry is X dollars in size and growing at Y percentage points per year does not mean that all boats float. In fact, the bigger the opportunity, the fiercer the competition. They need to under promise and over deliver, but it's entirely possible that that may turn out to still not be enough.

      My take is that they IPO'ed it way too high at the peak of "mobile is the next big thing" hype in 2012. Just look at FB's price history that starts just a few months later.

      Remember, IPO's are for liquefying early investors and raising operating capital, not for making common retail investors rich. When the company and the bankers take too hard on IPO day, common public investors get hosed. Just look at the FB vs. TWTR performance in their first few weeks of being public. TWTR underwriters learned their lesson watching the FB debacle - either you leave some scraps on the table for the public, or you should not be surprised if the publc says "hey no thanks, I don't want another FB opening day screw job on my books".

    • Newsnowcrow, I have more than 16K shares of MM. I feel quite confident that MM will more than double in 2014. The main reasons I feel so confident are, Jumptap, and I actually have confidence in PP. I think PP is more of a behind the scene professional and shouldn't be the spokesperson for the company. I believe he was/is smart enough to tap JT and was smart enough to buy the company with minimal cash outlay. I see his vision; however, I don't think he is the best person to present that vision. I believe JT management will step up in 2014 and MM will take off. JT took MM stock rather than do their own IPO - that tells me JT knows and sees more than we are seeing and hearing. I also beieve 4th quarter results will "blow away the numbers". And FYI - my average price is $8.01. and I will be in the black before the end of January, 2014.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • this is why we can buy MM at a very cheap price when compared to other in this space, should be trading at $15 at least.

 
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