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Millennial Media Inc. (MM) Message Board

  • psuskifan psuskifan Jan 3, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    What are your thoughts on this scenario

    MM is one of the most shorted stocks in the market. If MM announces a break out quarter in February just how high could MM go with that and short covering. Once it gets to $10 you would hope that there would also be an influx of institutional purchasers.

    Obviously reasonable minds can differ on when/if MM will have a breakout quarter. MM has been growth oriented. Last quarter was "blown" as they were integrating their business with Jumptag. I believe that either this or next quarter MM will see positive EPS and significantly raise their revenue (thanks in large part to Jumptag). I also think that now that MM has acquired Jumptag they can focus on the numbers.

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    • Corn, the company told me they think the short position is a 'tied trade' ... short the pure mobile play as you go long FB ... MM was probably told that by their Goldie contact. If true, the hedge is FB going up, and as soon as the relative performance / prospects change, the squeee could start. That could explain the minimal, non-bespoke option hedge you mentioned. Plus, I can't see who would take the other side of the bespoke stuff, but, then again, WS bets on anything.

    • first of all its jumptap idk #$%$ jumptag is. secondly, this has been the case for 3 quarters now but MM has failed to please 3 straight times but the mentality is always "this time will be different!"

      • 1 Reply to speeder430
      • To be clear, I am long, based on price action, not based on believing that "it will be different this time" when we get to the next cc. I'm a skeptical long who is willing to be pleasantly surprised. Depending on how price has moved into the next cc, I may close my position and move on, or I may trim it, or I may hedge it. There are many many ways to manage risk. Just my opinion, but it's better to take one's ego and one's psychological need to be "right" OUT of your trading, and focus on the process of trading/investing and managing your risk. Taking losses, when they happen, is part of the process.

        I'm positioned for what I *think* is *likely* to happen, with a position sized appropriately for my personal risk parameters. Cheerleading or bashing the stock isn't part of my equation. Pity, and likely a risk to their portfolios, that some folks here or formerly here think my skepticism is "bashing".

    • As you know, I'm long, and notwithstanding the cheap shots from our long lost resident cheerleader and koolaid-peddler, I'm just a realist, not a basher or a carnival barker.

      It's important to understand the mechanics of a short squeeze. Shorts do *not* automatically have to cover just because price moves higher. They could well be hedged with protective calls (although obviously that insurance has an expiration date), and they could perhaps even be hedged w/OTC calls that don't show up in option chain quotes for the listed options products. And, if they are reserved and margined properly to withstand short price spikes, they don't necessarily need to automatically get shaken out. It depends on their conviction in their positions, what alternatives they have to re-deploy their buying power into, and how they have structured and hedged the trade.

      Look, you don't get to be someone who trades large size if you constantly make rookie mistakes and get blown out of positions. I would never, ever *assume* that the shorts have no clue how to hedge a trade and that they can get blown out easily.

      My take is that whatever the breakout numbers are on any breakout quarter, we're going to have to see it be a clean number without a lot of "hair" on it - if there is a bunch of hand-waving pro forma BS on the next call, the short squeeze is going to have a hard time getting going.

      Just my take.

    • This little beaut is like a teenager's package. Strong like bull. Not going down again. Great story. Huge tax loss selling last year. Shorts are in deep trouble.

    • 'just how high could it go' ... I think it could spike big time and in a short order. Vol is significantly shrinking and the huge short position has a problem. I think we got a gap up coming very soon, and that would put us well over the 200 for the first time in forever. That attracts chartists, who buy, and their buying will attract non-chartists who will follow ... no shares available and now 3 sets of aggressive buyers showing up ... plus perhaps some institutionals too.

      Note, this size of short position WILL TAKE MONTHS TO UNWIND.

      MM / Jtap will have 20-25 million in efficiency cost savings ... that's 20 some cents per share profit right there. Personally, I think brand-side ownership + cutting-edge programmatic, all humming within MMX is powerful and the end game for others. We will see, pfan.

      • 3 Replies to epb2840
      • Day 2 of 7.65/66 line in the sand. If it doesn't beak the line, will get too bearish and drop to new floor of 7.10-7.35. Check the candle stick chart. Either way, will not get higher than 7.75 before the shorts come in like hawks to bring it to 7.10-6.90. Then the news pop to bring it up...

      • I think 105 large in rev and 2 pennies in nongaap does it. Gap will be burdened by the amort of the stock grants.

        Hay, look at the move today ... +.20 on 300K shares = ZERO SHORT COVERING ... We need to hold today and string a couple of more low vol days like this together. Let's see if the shorts' silver 100-share bid bullet machine shows up to roll the stock back down.

      • Great point on the efficiency cost savings. I would be interested what people would consider a "breakout quarter" as they are currently pegged for an EPS of -.03. I imagine an EPS of .07+ would be a huge beat.

 
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