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Hanwha SolarOne Co., L.Ş. Message Board

  • rosaesilvag1955 rosaesilvag1955 Oct 14, 2010 10:02 AM Flag

    EPS Estimates

    For the record SOLF beat estimates for the last 5Q´s

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    • Does anyone here do research?

      From the cc:

      G. Kung said re: margins:

      We tend to be very conservative. So that’s what we’re projecting around 20%, obviously no, potential is upside of that.

      Also, they said ASPs are 1.70 based on 1.20 dollar value for euro. Euro is now 1.4 dollars.

      Further on margins, P. Xie says:
      Peter Xie

      Yes. So maybe I will make additional comments. As you see, as we get into third quarter – fourth quarter, then I think the supply is very tight. I think to be – just to prepare for the worst. Actually, we do see – we do buy some external wafers and the cells from outside. But we see, actually, the price start to flatten, maybe be up a little bit. So with that in mind, we will project a flat margin.

      On capacities:

      Yes. I think that's a very good question. So if you look at our (inaudible) capacity right now. We have about 400 megawatts of wafer capacity, maybe by – 550 megawatts by year-end, about sales capacity – rather, module capacity is actually quite big. So in terms of our priority, we're going to prioritize cells and wafer capacity as the first priority to expand. So in general, when do we expand? I think when the decision will be made, we expect as we enter into Q3, it's probably towards the end of Q3, maybe early Q4 we'll have a better understanding of 2011, we’ll make that decision.

      a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase from the first quarter of 2010, while ASP declined as expected from $1.76 to $1.65 during the same period. The ASP decline was largely the result of a declining euro relative to the dollar. Total shipment drove – total shipment rose 36% to 204.6 megawatts in the second quarter as compared o the first quarter 2010 when we shipped 150.6 megawatts.

      On a US-GAAP basis, gross profit was $54.4 million and gross margin improved to 21%. Despite the decline in ASP and impact of a declining euro, we have been able to expand our gross margin through steady and continued reductions in our cost structure.

      The blended COGS per watt, excluding module processing services, was $ 1.31 in the second quarter, representing a nearly 8% reduction from $ 1.42 in the first quarter. For the first six months of 2010, we cut out – we cut our COGS per watt over 16%, and are well under – we are – and are well underway to meet our previously announced target of $1.25 by the end. The blended COGS takes into account the production cost, both silicon and non-silicon, using internal wafers, purchase costs, and additional processing costs of externally-sourced wafer and cells as well as freight costs. Peter will add some additional color to our cost structure in his comments.

      • 1 Reply to chrisceeaustin
      • They may've shipped 200 MW at an ASP that is, let's say 10% greater due to currency values; somewhat higher due to higher demand; and COGs may have increased due to higher wafer prices; estimated about 100 MW of the wafers they had to buy externally. Let's say 80 MW of that was already contracted at a reasonable price, similar to q2. So, about 20 MW they had to pay at spot prices? Can we assume that? That's about ten percent of the 200 MW shipped. Let's say the spot prices are 50% higher than last qarter. So that's a five percent increase in COGs. So, let's say it's a ten percent increase in ASP and a five percent increase in COGs. That's a five percent increase in net margin on a ten percent increase in volume (?), so I've got a 16% increase in profits? Let's be conservative and call it 10 percent and say that the real profits for q2 were only 42 cents. So this quarter the profits are 46 cents. It's only going up from there, due to hanwha funded expansion of upstream capacity and lowering of COGS, increase in panel efficiency and increased shipments. So let's averag 50 cents per quarter over a year, to get 2.00 in profits from June to June 2011. I feel I'm being connservative in saying that the stock price should be 20.00 by next summer. That's a 66% increase in eight months; much of this will be realized when SOLf reports earnings of well over 40 cents in mid-November. Why should it not get to 15? The writing is on the wall already.

    • when is earnings?

    • I know that. This stock does not get any respect yet, but it will turn heads soon.
      Oppenheimer has it doing 2.20 a share next year.
      x20 its a $24 stock, its growth is worth more!