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  • alphabgs alphabgs Aug 26, 2008 8:46 AM Flag

    IAS360 House Price Index Rises 1.1%

    IAS360 House Price Index Rises 1.1% in June. The IAS360 House Price Index for June 2008 that includes the most current and granular data available in the industry reports a 1.1% appreciation in house prices on a national level, and a -11.5% decline from June 2007 to June 2008

    Home prices now tracking back up on the more adaptive and predictive modeling...

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    • How much of their business IS in CA n FL???

      How much of CFC's business WAS in CA n FL???


      (CFC was based in Calabasas, CA)

      Plus, I never claimed to be an expert on AL or nationwide numbers. I used AL as an example to make a point. Too bad you read too much into it.

      What I do know is CA, Specifically L.A., specifically the San Fernando Valley. And they are FAR FROM BOTTOM.

      Some one mentioned San Bernadino and Riverside, Jesus, those meth hell holes have TANKED from their peaks, who cares if sales are up, or even prices? It's a contraction towards the center. Victorville, Palmdale, Lancaster, they're all done already. Now Simi Valley is tanking. It's all coming towards the center.

      ""No one can do what Countrywide can!""

    • AL is not even part of the case-shiller 20 state index. 20 metro areas which are very indicative of the BAC footprint are contained in that index. You don't have a clue about the rest of the country or where it peaked or how high the magnitude of the peak is.

      How many times do you have to be told that 60% of BAC business is not in CA or FL?

    • ""Housing inventories actually declined - Peter Schiff does not have any idea - I wonder if he is in touch with reality. ""

      I see you chose to completely ignore the statement below. Why am I not surprised?

      ""He predicted FRE and FNM would go bankrupt YEARS AGO, when their stocks were in the $60s and $70s and nobody (including you) thought anything was wrong.. If that's not enough for you then nothing can help you with your unexplainable hatred for the best economist america has. Continue with your squiggle watching while I continue to be right and you continue to be wrong. ""

      Nationwide numbers are useless, all the value is in main cities anyway. Alabama going to $120,000, SO WHAT?? Most of the country is well into the decline. On the other hand California's decline only started 13 months ago from a peak home price of ridiculous fantasy numbers. Houses on sale now are $100,000 to $150,000 LESS than what the owners paid. You are setting up straw men and are arguing silly arguments. And for some strange reason you hate the best economist america has.

      Tagging areas that are in the advanced stages of decline to the CA market is slippery and deceiving.

      ""No one can do what Countrywide can!""

    • Housing inventories actually declined - Peter Schiff does not have any idea - I wonder if he is in touch with reality. I don't know why he would make such an incorrect statement. Inventories are not growing as of the latest report...


      http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080826/usa_economy.html

      The new home sales report showed the inventory of homes available for sale shrank 5.2 percent to 416,000, the lowest since October 2004. The July sales pace put the supply of homes available for sale at 10.1 months' worth.

    • The problem with making wild guesses on preconceived notions is they lead to weird conclusions. Your 50% decline in home prices from here would put the median home price at about $106,000.

      Highly unlikely in the face of growing incomes and population, and the need for 1 - 2 million new units each year.

      I really don't care if you are short or have puts on. However, I would assume you do, otherwise posting the bear mantra would seem to be a pathetic waste of your time.

    • He's been right so far, unlike you longs that never saw any of this coming in the first place and who then predicted that the bottom is perpetually around the corner. He predicted FRE and FNM would go bankrupt YEARS AGO, when their stocks were in the $60s and $70s and nobody (including you) thought anything was wrong.. If that's not enough for you then nothing can help you with your unexplainable hatred for the best economist america has. Continue with your squiggle watching while I continue to be right and you continue to be wrong.

      You know as well as anyone a specific prediction of price is impossible and you are pursuing a silly argument.

      Real estate is also location specific. I have stated enough times that the fair value for Los Angeles would be $200,000 to $250,000.

      Of course when we get there you will not give me any credit, just like you didn't give me credit for being right about last quarter's numbers declining yet again. And when next quarter's numbers come in lower, yet again, you still won't fess up.

      But we will all know the truth deep inside.


      ""No one can do what Countrywide can!""

    • Go ahead an post the link to his specific prediction then.

      I have seen posted and linked where he keeps changing his estimate higher and his latest B.S. doom and gloom statement. Mean national sales price from $160K to $184k - by next week he will be at $200K.

      He always put out vague and meaningless crap.

      I think he is a flake compared to those like Case and Shiller who can model and who foretasted the bubble specifically including quantifiable results and put out books on the subject.

      Peter Schiff is just a worthless naysaying who can't do fundamental analysis on real property.

      He probably thinks if gold coins go from 1 ounce to 1.25 ounces they are still worth the same. He acts like property is valued arbitrarily of the actual improvements.

    • LOWER!

    • What is the Peter Schiff specific prediction then? Why don't you post it.

      Now it looks like he is predicting a 20% reduction in the current $230,000 national mean sales price which would be $184,000.

      But previously he said the 2005 $229,000 mean sales price would be reduced by 30% so $160,000.

      He just rambles all over the place and is totally vague and is very incompetent at running a valuation model.


      http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/26/real_estate/Case_Shiller_home_price_report/index.htm?section=money_latest

      Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, said the market is only about halfway to its bottom. In 2005, he predicted the then-coming bust would cut 30% off national home prices.

      Losses will continue because there has been no fundamental change in markets, he said. Despite abundant foreclosure sales, inventories are still growing and lending availability is still shrinking.

      And, people are not inclined to buy in a falling market. They wait for it to hit bottom. "If prices fall another 20%, that's the time to buy," said Schiff.

    • I don't short this stock. I just know how bad real estate is going to get. I knew there was a bubble in 2005. So don't think I am shorting and don't think you know all the answers you who stupidly voted for that Bozo to give him five stars.

      You must be doing it on BAC time.

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