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  • always.long always.long Jun 19, 2009 6:09 PM Flag

    Southern California home prices rise in May 2009

    By Roger Showley, Union-Tribune Staff Writer
    12:41 p.m. June 17, 2009
    Related news:
    Home sales down, prices up in county
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    See related chart at end of story.
    Southern California home prices rose from April to May, the first month-over-month increase in nearly two years, MDA DataQuick reported Wednesday.
    The overall median for the six-county area rose from $247,000 to $249,000, as sales increased 1.3 percent to 20,775. San Diego County figures, released Tuesday, showed a $5,000, or 1.7 percent, increase from April to a median $290,000, but a 3.9 percent decline in sales to 3,242.
    Orange County had the biggest monthly jump, up $30,000, or 7.9 percent, to $410,000, and Ventura County was up $15,000, or 4.4 percent, to $355,000.
    Los Angeles and Riverside counties were unchanged at $300,000 and $180,000 respectively, while San Bernardino, hit hard by foreclosures, was down $1,500, or 1.1 percent, to $137,000.
    Compared with May 2008, last month's regional median was down $121,000, or 32.7 percent, to $249,000. San Bernardino took the biggest plunge, down 45.3 percent. San Diego County was down 22.4 percent year-over-year.
    Sales regionwide were up 22.8 percent over the same period, the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.
    “We appear to be in the early stages of the market gradually tilting back toward a more normal balance of sales across the home price spectrum,” DataQuick President John Walsh said in a statement.
    As evidenced in the San Diego findings, Southern California saw fewer sales of properties below $500,000 and more above that figure. DataQuick analysts interpreted that shift as a sign that, at least for the moment, low-cost foreclosure homes have lost some of their dominance and given way to higher priced moveup and nondistressed properties.
    Of all resales regionwide last month, 50.2 percent involved homes that had been foreclosed on in the last 12 months. For San Diego County, it was 43.1 percent. Both figures were down from previous record highs.
    “Let's not forget we're into the traditional home-buying season right now,” Walsh said, “meaning more people are purchasing for all the normal reasons, such as a new job or to get settled before school starts. Many are concerned with finding the right home in the right area, not just the most deeply discounted home.”
    In other May findings, DataQuick said the typical monthly mortgage payment for buyers last month was $1,052, up from $1,038 in April but down from $1,782 a year ago, a reflection of lower interest rates and prices.
    While sales of higher-priced homes improved from 15.2 percent in April to 17 percent in May of all sales, the use of jumbo loans for mortgages above $417,000 stood at only 12 percent. That was up from 10.6 percent in April but down from 40 percent or more before easy financing grew scarce in August 2007
    ......................................................
    buy BAC
    Prices will be much higher in 2 years as many homes in CA are off 100% from the top due to forced sales(unsustainable). For example, if you buy a home for 300k that was 600k, it would take a gian of 100% to make it back to the top. However, only a small recovery towards the top could net you 50-100k home equity.

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    • BAC target is 32

    • The last time SoCal real estate bubbled, peaking in 1988, the bottoming process took about 10 years to complete. So I disagree with the idea that prices will be "back to normal" in 1 year or 3. The peak of the bubble was much higher on this cycle, so I think you will need 10 to 12 years to get to prices that eclipse the previous peak.

      Remember also that CA is close to falling into bankruptcy, default, or forced massive layoffs of government workers. The state legislature is counting on the bailout by the Federal Government, perhaps in the form of a guarantee of state bonds, but if the Federal Government does it for CA, it will have to do it for all the other 49 states, so it could be a very tough sell politically. Even if a CA bailout goes through the rest of the country is then at risk of a deep recession or depression from the resources diverted to CA.

      On the one hand you have a CA fiscal crisis causing deeper unemployment statewide, and on the other you have sharply lower prices for food and entertainment products exported out of CA due to a U.S. double-dip recession and backlash against CA by the other 49 states. Either way, house prices will not rise much.

    • CW...like I said, the RE market swings like a tidal pattern in Ca., been through it before. Last time, bought a few mid-range properties in 2001, out of them in late 2006. Run a 5 year process on RE projects. 2007 through 2009 is the correction cycle. Now is the time to "build" to the RE portfolio again.

      Sure, the ratings on Ca will be downgraded, and create additional weight on the state budget. Finally, the state legislature will be "forced" into balancing the budget in reality rather than the smoke and mirrors used over the past several years.

      The overall economy will stabilize, maybe not immediately, but in next 12-18 months should be on recovery mode. Housing will stabilize prior to general economy by 6-9 months in the major metro areas.

      If one is looking for perfect timing, they often miss it with analysis paralysis. If building an investment portfolio on RE, one just needs to factor an additional downside risk into the proformas with a minimum 5 year hold, or longer.

      JMHO...

      Regards.

    • Who gives a shit.

      The property in California has been overpriced for decades. It's about time it started coming down. The whole damn state is going to fall into the ocean when the big one hits anyway so what does it matter?

      People need to be buying up land on the Nevada and Arizona side of the border. That's where the new coastline will be.

      BooYah! Ocean front property in Arizona and Nevada!:-)

    • collaborater and other Cali supporters..wake up and read this and how a chain of events could be set off

      http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/california-to-get-multi-notch-downgrade.html

    • ha ha....you don't get it this time. you got obama in there....you got 20 years of easy credit and a monetary boom/bust cycle compliment of the FED coming home to roost. and you got a state who has spent many years convincing business to leave and find a better quality of life

    • From Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data on the south east.

      http://www.frbatlanta.org/econ_rd/regional/charts/2009/real_estate_0509c.cfm


      New Home Sales
      According to U.S. Census Bureau data, new home sales both nationally and in the South Census region were little changed in March. In the South, sales were unchanged on a month-to-month basis while year-over-year declines continued to improve; sales declined 29.7 percent on a year-over-year basis following a 34.4 percent decline in February. Nationally, seasonally adjusted sales in March decreased 0.6 percent on a month-to-month basis and 30.6 percent year-over-year.


      Construction and Real Estate
      Single-Family Residential: Home Sales
      http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=831A486D-5056-9F12-12039A1F025DA43D&method=display_body

      • 1 Reply to dumb_log
      • Yes the data is very telling. The forced sales are creating prices that are not normalized, the low prices are flat out unsustainable medium to long term. They over shot to the downside and will bump up quickly from the lows. Like the bank earnings. BAC normalized earnings will be 3 eps. Unemployment is last to recover when coming out of recessions. With 600b of stimulus to be put to work next year or two, this looks like an outstanding time to buy BAC.

    • YOY down by 12.5% but 7.8% IMPROVEMENT April/2009 over March/2009.

      WALTHAM, Mass. - May 25, 2009 - (RealEstateRama) — The Massachusetts Association of REALTORS® (MAR) reported today that median home prices for single-family homes and condominiums showed slight signs of improvement in April. While median prices were down 12.5 percent for single-family homes and 14.2 percent for condos, it is the smallest annual price decrease since October 2008 and November 2008 respectively. On a month-to-month basis single-family median prices were up 7.8 percent from March, the largest month-to-month increase since MAR has been tracking monthly median prices. Single-family home sales were down 13 percent in April compared to the same time last year, while condominium sales were down 28.8 percent.
      “On a year-over-year basis, median prices are still feeling the weight of the market correction that has been taking place over the past 20 months,” said MAR President Gary Rogers, a broker at RE/MAX First Realty in Waltham. “However, it is encouraging to see month-to-month median prices going up, as it is reflective of the increased activity REALTORS® are seeing today as buyers are looking to get back into the market.”

      April Median Prices Showed Slight Signs of Improvement as Massachusetts Home Sales Down
      Posted by Massachusetts RealEstateRamaMay 25, 2009

    • Houston too. YOY is down but month to month improvement for several months.

      MAY BRINGS FURTHER PRICE APPRECIATION TO HOUSTON'S HOUSING MARKET
      Published 06/17/2009 - 7:21 a.m. CST
      http://www.thecypresstimes.com/article/Real_Estate/News/MAY_BRINGS_FURTHER_PRICE_APPRECIATION_TO_HOUSTONS_HOUSING_MARKET/22898

    • tdruby@sbcglobal.net tdruby Jun 19, 2009 8:34 PM Flag

      and who are you. are you some special analyst or something

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