No Housing recovery equals
Negative wealth effect equals
Consumer feel poorer equals
Save money instead of spend equal
Less retail sales equals
Companies cut and go under equals
more unemloyment equals
More bank write offs
Equals stock market way down
We are now in the second half and the consumer feels more confident that it may get better in the future but the dynamics have changed for that reason, it won't get better until housing prices come back which they won't anytime soo... look at the long term historical price chart for housing
Listen to Wilbur Ross...he just said what I did. The consumer is not coming back....S&P now 200 points over valued versus traditional multiples and we better hope spending doesn't go down further because its not going up. yet the S&P s forecasting a return to old spending...
Wallstreet stealing money from the cookie jar...since Wallstreet won't spend it, they are taking it from the 401ks AGAIN and now we are topped out...what happens next
In case you're keeping score, fresh claims increased by 15,000, to 627,000. That brought the total number of unfortunate folks on the dole to 6.74 million, just a hair away from the peak set at the end of May.
...and the investors that fixate only on the unemployment numbers to judge the state of the economy are missing the real story.
How many people have taken pay cuts? How many people are UNDEREMPLOYED? Working part-time now, two, three days a week.
Ha, working part-time, well then you are not unemployed and everything is just great right?
It's emotional for some of you investors to admit it because of fear of losing your wealth, whatever is left of it. Nevertheless we have over 33 million people collecting food stamps now and 36 million people that are food insecure.
That my friends blows away the manipulated government unemployment numbers. Twelve percent of the entire United States of America's population is on food stamps. Or you could base the food stamp caseload against the US workforce data of approx. 180 million and then you end up with the equiv. of twenty-four percent of the workforce collecting food stamps.
Yeah, I know, the food stamp people are lazy and should get a job right..ha!..
Well, in 2000 we had only about 17 million on food stamps. We are currently adding over 600K a month to the program.
We add another 19 million to the program in nine years like the last nine years...well you do the math. Funny huh...how come all these people became lazy and not willing to work all of a sudden ( according to many of you )
Look folks..what i site above is simply fact...1 of 5 homes in the entire united stated is underwater versus its mortgage; that percentage is increasing and those prices are not coming back...i truly believe that the bounce has been orchestrated by the media because the alternative is what nobody wants to have happen so they think they can change confidence and therefor behavior...but it just isn't going to happen..the mechanics of the economy are not fixable in the near term and people need to prepare...homes are underwater,; there are no new jobs going forward but infact many less because people will not spend there way out of this and we need to (you need to) prepare. Just as side note. I was informed by credit suisse this weekend that i cannot buy hard gold from them...only the paper stuff.only purchases of $10m or more will be accepted on a rule change.now why would they do that?
The engine (and it's a big one) that's going to pull the market up over the next few months is the falling dollar. This will boost commodity stocks (XOM, AA, etc) and exporters such as IBM. The 200 day moving average is about to begin trending higher (200 trading days ago is when crash began... so average will flatten and begin rise). This is all setting up for a bull run in late summer/autumn.
that will be the real surprise.
You're doom and gloom attitude only enhances all this.My optimistic attitude says go out and live your life. 90% of the population is doing fine..paying their bills..going out to dinner..taking vacations..Homes are being sold(lower prices..but hey they were over priced anyway). I'll look at the bright side and you can live in fear.
Last time I checked just because a family is underwater on a loan to value ratio does not mean they have stopped making their payments and are therefore close to foreclosure. Most Americans are good people and continue to have a mind set of paying for what they bought irrespective of bad timing or buying too much house. The numbers are also influenced to the negative by specific areas of the country, namely California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and parts of the Northeast.
The naysayers can be as negative as they want to be and can take the left leaning media's articles and manipulate them however they wish. Bottom line is that BAC will have tough sledding for the next 2-3 quarters BUT will generate more than sufficient pre-tax pre-provision operating profits to buffer the credit card, mortgage, and commercial real-estate losses. The street knows this and when this turns I am certain I do not want to be short or not invested. It will also happen when nobody expects it and well before the recovery is certain.
Fortunately or Unfortunately with all the news...we have moved from the end of the world scenario to one where hey 325m US citizens still need a roof over their head + food+clothes+energy+banking services...I do not think anyone believes we will go back to booming property prices , just basic survival !!!