So, it seems a lock that BAC will up the divvy. Why's the stock only at 12.15? I mean, it's been as high as 12.40, and I get that there's some uncertainty, but seems like there should be some anticipation in the price. Tangible book value is around $13.50, I figure the stock should at least approach 13 on good divvy news. The lack of speculation in the price makes me worry that the spec money is already in, which means no upside, sell the news, potential drop to 11.40 or so. Am I overthinking this?
Post stress test last week BAC management muzzled themselves while C management crowed (without regard for actually doing it) that they were gonna buy back shares. C has zoomed and BAC has been going sideways since that time. There's now quite a divergence in performance going on between the two of them. I expect the divergence to continue to widen so long as BAC management remains muzzled. But even so I've been collecting shares in BAC here (while still owning C, too - heh) with the expectation that sooner or later BAC will unmuzzle themselves. At that point the divergence should begin to narrow. ;-)
I think that on an aggregate basis, the market has run up too far too fast. Stocks are trading on sentiment more than fundamentals. BAC's stock current stock price is not a reflection of tangible book as much as it is prevailing sentiment that a market correct is long overdue. I believe that we will see $13-$14 sometime this year, but not necessarily for in the short term. I plan to buy on any dips along the way. You are not over-thinking, you are being a smart and rational investor.