Purely my estimates and using Smith Travel Research and comparing to AHT results historically, it looks like revpar for AHT second quarter should be up about 2.7% compared to AHT first qtr results up 2.6%. The presentation at the recent conference sounded like AHT needed 2% increase to keep up with rising expenses. Does this track with others estimates?
To offset increase in expenses due to general inflation the will have a) lower interest rates compared to last year b) in case of lower/softer revpar they said they would implement expense savings c) they have been selling hotels with relatively low cap rates so that reducing mortgage balances outstanding and deploying the money to better yielding opportunities should help.
This is just my humble opinion - i have no idea what this quarters earnings will be like.