All the hotels that I own and for that matter most REITS have been killed. All the blogs ask what is wrong with said company that it is going down so. The answer is that there is massive liquadation especially in anything real estate right now until it can be proven that real estate will not be wiped out by this world recession.
As soon as it will be clear that the end of the world will not end these stocks will rebound quickly. You need pateince. It will ocuur by the end of 2009 or early 2010. It is not to say that it could come back sooner but assume 12-18 months and you should be happy by then.
If you had read my posts about 2 months ago you would have known that I purchased some AHT stock. I'm trying to find out why it took such a steep drop. And the fact that some of the others took a similar drop does not explain the AHT problem IMO. Therefore I'm looking at the possibility that the mezzanine loans may have something to do with it. My experience is that CEOs don't volunteer their dirty linen out unless absolutely required. Get it?
It looks like they have about $150M out on loan, and of that amount $40M is either in default or no payments being made. I was surprised to se a very conservative outfit like Prudential go into this also.
The reason I asked is to get an idea on the max damage that would be incurred on AHT operations and balance sheet if their total portfolio were to be in trouble. I realize that they have options if this were to occur (taking over). However, anything they do to fix the problem will require additional investment, and that's were the real problem lies (IMHO anyway).
No matter which way we slice it, it's a mess that they are in.