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Providian Financial Corp (PVN) Message Board

  • ObKozRanch ObKozRanch Jul 30, 2002 6:31 PM Flag

    The est. vs. actual worries me

    Providian Financial (PVN) reported a decline in net income for the second quarter compared to a year ago, as restructuring efforts continue. The company posted a net income of $153.9 million, or 53 cents a share. Last year's net income was $232.4 million, or 79 cents. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call had expected a loss of a penny a share, but their calculation excludes extraordinary items. Providian's net income includes several one-time gains and the company said these were not broken out of the 53-cent a share profit. Revenue came to $1.32 billion -- analysts were expecting $1.45 billion -- vs. last year's $1.73 billion. For the full year, Providian expects earnings to range from $180 million to $200 million, or 61 to 68 cents a share. Shares of San Francisco-based Providian soared 13 percent to $4.25 after hours.

    I say-Although we are up to 4.45/share now we did not beat the analysts yet. When we beat their estimates this stock will soar. For now if you break it down the extraordinary items are a one time blip. I'm long 1620 shares at 7/share and feel I may not get that back till next year. But hey, I always said I was in it for the longggggggg haul. Sorry if Im a wet rag but I like the closure of several offices- surely that will improve the bottom line. Now let's get the BK bill signed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    • I agree, you have to take into account the extraordinary items, and that does change the numbers quite a bit. But the earnings are still very, very good, and those items are important steps in their turnaround.

      As for CBS Marketwatch, I think they're the lowest of business journalism. I always find factual mistakes, or reporters not commenting on the obvious big issues. They give out assignments to very green reporters, and those guys pull a story out of the basics--comparing years and quarters--without having a clue as to the big story benind the stock.

    • you do not get all 15% as benefit. some will still go bk after the law and then the rest, don't just pay. most of them do not have a lot of money , outside a few deadbeat cheats , most have no money to pay the bills regardless of the law loss rate impact will be very small

    • You look like a short, you sound like a short and you smell like a short. You are a short.
      So, cover your a$$ and get the hell out of this board.

      Longs, do not sell cheap. Upgrades in the way.
      This rally will continue for 3 days.

    • Good post. Loan loss decline will heal the stock price. I worry about this loan loss issue. This is killing our profits. Damm deadbeats.

    • If you go through the math (they also mentioned this on the CC, so it's not just me making shit up) and back out the $208 million in total gains, you will arrive at $.09 a share in "core" earnings. This is because the $208 million is before tax. Assume a 39% tax rate on $208 million, you get $127 million after tax gain. The reported AT earnings of about $153 million minus this amount is about $26 million. Divided by about 290 M shares, you get about $.09.

      • 1 Reply to matishuge
      • ''By: matishuge
        If you go through the math ...''

        I could not follow your math and I come up with a different result. From the press release-
        ''the net effect of changes to estimates of loan collectibility resulted in an increase to income of approximately $65.3 million during the second quarter....''
        From the context this is a before tax figure.
        subtracting from:
        ''Income From Operations Before Taxes 148.6""
        yields $83 million
        appplying a 39.5% tax rate yields after tax core earnings of $50.2M
        /294 M shs = $.17/sh
        which just happens to annualize to PVNs esatimated earnigs for the year

    • read? Do you know what continuing operations means? If you do, good, if not call your broker. o.k., heres what pvn really earned for the second quarter from "continuing operations" PLUS ++++.31 O.K., That my friend BEATS THE ANALIST ESTIMATIONS, o.k., it's all good my friend, and at 2 bucks last week pvn was trading as if it was going bk, WELL I GUESS THEY AIN'T, now where should pvn be trading? I bet a lot higher than todays afterhours...btw, joes dog said we'll see strong buy UPGRADES TOMORROW........