The high volume and 9% drop was due to a combination of index rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, and taking out a fresh 52-week low... I confirmed with Ivanhoe that nothing has changed on their end with the JV partner negotiations. We should hear something on this in the "near-term". They are building a road to the Ecuador well as we speak, and they should spud by the end of the year/early Jan. We should also hear test results on the Mongolia well by the EOY as well.
From the process of elimination, the JV will not be for Ecuador or Tamarack -- It will be for China Nat Gas and/or Mongolia. We should hear something on this soon, as this is their #1 priority. They are pushing ahead these negotiations and they still are not saying anything has changed from their EOY timeline.
Should be an interesting next two weeks... Good luck to all!
Take a look at YLO.TO -- That was another company that was removed from the TSX Index.. It looks as if a major institution rebalanced their portfolio late on Friday and dumped the stocks being removed.
Particles- I do not know that for certain and without a doubt. However, I pieced together a few things as I have been talking to Ivanhoe over the past month or so.. They have told me in the past they hope JV negotiations heat up after hopefully hitting light oil in the Ecuador well. That eliminates that project. Also, I asked them if they got any additional access to new HTL deals due to their these JV negotiations, and they responsed that the specific JV deal they are working on (and trying to complete before year end) does not have to do with HTL. That elimates Tamarack. Therefore, I am not sure if the JV deal they are working on is for Mongolia, China Natural Gas, or both --- And although they never outright said what the JV is for, I tried to make an educated guess with the information I have collected.
Should be an interesting next few weeks..
Lets hope so...
We all need a nice Christmas present after this year of let downs (not just IVAN)..
Regardless, 2012 IS the "Make or Break" year. Actually, it is the "Make" year, for we have already been "broken" this year. I just don't see how they can move forward with nothing happening being added to the company value.
Brisan, how is it that you came to eleiminate Ecuador and Tamarack? How do chose Zitong or Mongolia as the project which is the subject of ongoing JV talks? For the latter, we are about as close to commercialization as the former, in my opinion. In Zitong, we had two structures which underwent fracking and were a bust, not enough pressure build and then the other with the water block issues - then nothing - which I take to mean as unavailable for commercialization. Now we are told they must re-start their seismic surverying again - from scratch as I see it. In Mongoia we have a one dry well, and from the second "oil standing and higher than normal conc of nat gas". DO you think either of these present enough concrete evidence of potential commercial success to convince a potential JV partner to commit?
Quite frankly, I will not even call IR because I think they are either: 1) so inept, they have no real clue as to what is happening, or 2) they are outright lyinh to investors.
What about the possibility of an HTL licensing deal - where the terms are a profit sharing partnership?
Honestly, none of us here, nor the retail investor who does post here, know what is going. Look at how we were all taken surprise by the Carlos Cabrera appointment. Those with the big psitions, the access, an inside infomration know something. At this point, my due dilligence only tells me that sometime in the future there will be great value for this company - to try to predict anything else, time events, catching the falling knife in order to get in at the bottom - is a zero sum game.
I will follow the money; institutions maintain a solid position (25.72%) and some have opened new ones of noteable size; eg. FMR LLC at 4,875,000.
I took this opportunity to add more, but I am done. I will focus on continued siversification and adding to other positions. I remain confident and will not be tricked to adding anymore by pumpers an IR with pie in the sky garbage, nor will I be tricked by shorts, idiot bashers who post their nonsense here, nor big players who hold all the cards and who may be trying to trick me (retail investor) into getting my shares for cheap.
BTW, diod not make it to the NYSSA "Fruture of Energy Conference" - I had to take two personal days to attend, but a crisis develop at work and they pulled me back. NYSAA would not let me send a proxy in my place. I am not sure what MR Dyck could have said to me anyway to change things.