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Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM) Message Board

  • macrocosmonaut macrocosmonaut Jun 3, 2010 4:00 PM Flag

    ALIM - underperformer - sell - LT PT 2 US$

    In a first estimate I am recommeding ALIM as a underperformer - the current market cap of more than 200 million US$ reflects a heavy overvaluation of this company which is burning alot of cash.

    The Iluvien trial results aren´t published completely - indicating difficulties in the trial set up.

    Further Iluvien isn´t a biodegradable device like already aprooved devices.

    Further Iluvien market success remains questionable with sight on future developments in the field of ophthalmology.

    Alcon is developing in phase III trials eye drops against AMD.

    There is a high risk that Alimera will burn further cash and needs further trials for IND-filing at late 2010.

    Non regarding this - even if there would be an approval it remains questionable that ALIM is able to earn its current high market cap while the company is further burning a lot of money.

    In this backrground I am recommending ALIM as sector underperformer and a fair value of 2 US$.

    IMO.

    Do your own due dilligence.

    M.

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    • The FDA is asking for further study results and didn´t approved the system.

      The delay is bad vor ALIM - leading to further significant value destruction of shareholders.

      ALIM is burning around 6 million US$ - this means that ALIM will rund out of cash by end of 2011 when FDA will not approve Iluvien.

      ALIM can even run out of cash, when the system will not have a market success, which is even presumably from my point of view.

      I has doubt that the system is approvable at current status and that ALIM is able to generate any kind of cash flow in order to earn its current market cap and to survive.

      Without new cash infusion the company is able to go bankrupt I am lowering in this background the fair falue from 2 US$ to 0.20 US$.

      IMO.

      Do your own due dilligence.

      M.

    • I don't really know why I am replying to your message, because it is wrong on virtually every count. Phase 3 is done for apprvl. Additional testing is to expand the label. They have all the $ they need for further use testing. True, the implant is not biodegradeable, but only needs insertion once every 2-3 years. In long term an older one could be removed if needed, etc, etc. Stop jerking everyone's chain when you don't know what you are talking about.

    • That´s not correct - Avastin injection drug costs are around 60 US$ per injection.

      You presumably need for treatment of DME around 2 or 3 injections a year - depending of the patients status.

      If Avastin is not working - Iluvien will even presumably not work. Further you has to expland such a drug delivery system - and Alcon has a biodegradable system.

      So Iluvien will have not significant market benefits in any kind from my point of view.

      ALIM is overvalued.

      M.

    • I suggest you learn to read a chart or two ... stick your " idiotic fundamentals " where the sun doesn't shine . NUMBERS TALK and BS walks ... enjoy your walk shorty .

    • Glad you found a new home....

      I suggest you stop the distortions - e.g. results not published and implying that means trouble. They won't be published until after submission. That is how it works.

      As far as Alergan product I think you need to read the ARVO results... oh forgot those.

      With regard to other therapy's you talk about drops for AMD and ALIM is treating DME....

      Also, you forget to address that the p value at 30 months is getting smaller.... interesting omission.

      Time to put you on ban ! Already did my DD

 
ALIM
6.23-0.07(-1.11%)12:39 PMEDT

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