1. Preliminary sales data from the EU should be out by mid June
-if sales are good the stock price should test $5.10 area and push through
-if sales are bad... most likely will test $3.40 area
-if sales are average .. most likely up to $4.80 area
2. ALIM will triple from here is approved in the US
-One thing to note is: that if approved in the US they will owe PSDV $25million cash. They will need to dilute to pay PSDV. I believe they will annouce dilution within 1 or 2 days of FDA approval. At the end of Q1 they only had 39 Million cash/equiv +20million atm. I dont think they will sell themselves short and dilute before FDA approval.
3. Continued european expansion into Q3, Q4 and 2013. Positive share price appreciation.
4. If a big pharma is going to buy them out they are also going to make a bid for PSDV. WIth the royalty set up there is no point of buying one without the other. They are both cheap enough to do so.
5. There are others but they can wait.
Sales out by mid June? Would this be sales through May? Who would be reporting these sales figures? Alimera? Doubt that. I don't see sales as highly relevant at this point anyway since they do not have reimbursement agreements in place with the big insurers in Germany yet and they are still waiting to hear from the NICE commission in the UK on government reimbursement. Govt. reimbursement in the UK is worth 85% of the UK market.
IMO if you believe the device will obtain govt approval in the UK and approval in the US later in the year you should hold on to your investment and not attempt to guess the short term fluctuations.
btw, my advice to you is that you shouldn't write an investor column in seeking alpha then conduct yourself in other forums like a day trader. Your credibility with me and I'm sure plenty of others is shot.
thanks for the advice hernando. I do not think you know what the defition of a day trader is so let me refresh you. A day trader goes in cash overnight. I held my initial Alimera shares since Dec 2012 until May 2013 when i sold them, That is not consistent with a day trader. I have said many times I will re enter when the price is right. Another 1.5 - 2 wks and i will be back in.
koot, Somehow I see phizer in the mix for a lock stock and barrel head for Alim/.psdv.,as a one/two aqui.........It's a good fit..............If you consider the delivery sys and it's versatility in the psdv pipeline..........What a pickoff......luck...tro