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Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM) Message Board

  • frankie1x frankie1x Oct 21, 2013 5:27 AM Flag

    European potential for ILUVIEN from SA article 10/7/13 Bobs stock, psivida strong takeover target

    Approximately 10% of diabetics will develop Diabetic Macular Edema. The proposed price for Iluvien in Europe will be somewhere between $5,500 to $8,800. For the purpose of this article I will use the average, which is $7150.

    Austria:

    Has approximately 400,000 diabetics

    400,000 * 0.10 = 40,000 potential patients

    40,000 * $7150 = $286,000,000 sales

    Portugal:

    Has approximately 900,000 diabetics

    900,000 * 0.10 = 90,000 potential patients

    90,000 * $7150 = $643,500,000 sales

    France:

    Has approximately 3,945,753 diabetics

    3,945,753 * 0.10 = 394,575 potential patients

    394,575 * $7150 = $2,821,211,250 sales

    Spain:

    Has approximately 3,635,946 diabetics

    3,635,946 * 0.10 = 363,594 potential patients

    363,594 * $7150 = $2,599,697,100 sales

    Germany:

    Has approximately 7,372,226 diabetics

    7,372,226 * 0.10 = 737,222 potential patients

    737,222 * $7150 = $5,271,137,300 sales

    United Kingdom (I will use a cost of $5500 for the U.K. since it is most likely to be lower in the U.K.):

    Has approximately 3,636,375 diabetics

    3,636,375 * 0.10 = 363,637 potential patients

    363,637 * $5500 = $2,000,003,500 sales

    Approximately 10% of diabetics will develop Diabetic Macular Edema. The proposed price for Iluvien in Europe is between $5,500 and $8,800. For the purposes of this article I will use the average, which is $7150.

    Using these conservative estimates, the potential revenue possibilities are enormous. pSivida fully diluted share count is 23,297,011. At today's price per share value of $4.78, it would have a market capitalization of around $110 million. If the company produces even 15% of the above projected revenues, this would equate to $2.1 billion. This is excluding the U.S. market, which I feel will be a slam dunk approval later this year.

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