Pricing and Revenue Information Excerpt from May 13th Article AVG 7150.00
Approximately 10% of diabetics will develop Diabetic Macular Edema. The proposed price for Iluvien in Europe will be somewhere between $5,500 to $8,800. For the purpose of this article I will use the average, which is $7150.
Has approximately 400,000 diabetics.
400,000 * 0.10 = 40,000 potential patients
40,000 * $7150 = $286,000,000 sales
Has approximately 900,000 diabetics
900,000 * 0.10 = 90,000 potential patients
90,000 * $7150 = $643,500,000 sales
Has approximately 3,945,753 diabetics
3,945,753 * 0.10 = 394,575 potential patients
394,575 * $7150 = $2,821,211,250 sales
Has approximately 3,635,946 diabetics
3,635,946 * 0.10 = 363,594 potential patients
363,594 * $7150 = $2,599,697,100 sales
Has approximately 7,372,226 diabetics
7,372,226 * 0.10 = 737,222 potential patients
737,222 * $7150 = $5,271,137,300 sales
I will use a cost of $5500 for the U.K. since it is most likely to be lower in the U.K.
Has approximately 3,636,375 diabetics
3,636,375 * 0.10 = 363,637 potential patients
363,637 * $5500 = $2,000,003,500 sales
Therefore, based on the above projections, presuming that Alimera will get 1.6 billion in revenue, the share price target of Alimera should be way north of $10.00. Analysts will be coming out with their price per share targets well above this prediction very soon. Best to be in early for big profits.
1.6 billion .... for 100% penetration, if it cost 0 to produce , sell, market, insure...etc. Lets be a little more conservative. Lets say 30 % penetration first 2-3 yrs, ie 1.6 Bill is now about 400Million. Now other cost of production , huge sales force, bonus to the major players...now we are talking about $250 million profit. So whats it worth now ?
I don't feel anyone here is taking into consideration that ALIM is just now starting their revenue stream as this was just recently approved in these various countries. One glance at financials will show that. This is just ramping up - and label approval in the US will just be icing. With such a low float available it is just sitting on coals.