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Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM) Message Board

  • makea_bayn makea_bayn Dec 23, 2013 7:34 AM Flag

    Pricing and Revenue Information Excerpt from May 13th Article AVG 7150.00

    Approximately 10% of diabetics will develop Diabetic Macular Edema. The proposed price for Iluvien in Europe will be somewhere between $5,500 to $8,800. For the purpose of this article I will use the average, which is $7150.

    Austria:
    Has approximately 400,000 diabetics.
    400,000 * 0.10 = 40,000 potential patients
    40,000 * $7150 = $286,000,000 sales

    Portugal:
    Has approximately 900,000 diabetics
    900,000 * 0.10 = 90,000 potential patients
    90,000 * $7150 = $643,500,000 sales

    France:
    Has approximately 3,945,753 diabetics
    3,945,753 * 0.10 = 394,575 potential patients
    394,575 * $7150 = $2,821,211,250 sales

    Spain:
    Has approximately 3,635,946 diabetics
    3,635,946 * 0.10 = 363,594 potential patients
    363,594 * $7150 = $2,599,697,100 sales

    Germany:
    Has approximately 7,372,226 diabetics
    7,372,226 * 0.10 = 737,222 potential patients
    737,222 * $7150 = $5,271,137,300 sales

    United Kingdom:
    I will use a cost of $5500 for the U.K. since it is most likely to be lower in the U.K.
    Has approximately 3,636,375 diabetics
    3,636,375 * 0.10 = 363,637 potential patients
    363,637 * $5500 = $2,000,003,500 sales

    Therefore, based on the above projections, presuming that Alimera will get 1.6 billion in revenue, the share price target of Alimera should be way north of $10.00. Analysts will be coming out with their price per share targets well above this prediction very soon. Best to be in early for big profits.

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