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II-VI Incorporated Message Board

  • jbacci jbacci Oct 19, 2006 11:20 AM Flag


    Little less "visibility" for me this time, as some of the numbers I use to make my nut just aren't out yet. Typically, Q1 has been the seasonal lowpoint of the fiscal year. That will continue here, but I see revenue on the high side again, which is the driver here. It looks like they've solved the production issues that held EPS down and the goodwill writedown is behind us....I'm thinking they can come in in the upper $61mm range on revenue, say $61.7 and the EPS could come in at .28 on that. I'm on the optimistic side with these numbers, but nothing I see indicates that they can't deliver these numbers.

    I see the stock price took a bit of a hit today. I'm not surprised, as there was alot of fluid money in here. I still get the impression that people don't really know what II-VI is, or how it works. I remember back in 1999 it started to run and analysts started talking about the telecom aspects of the business. Really it was just people praying for price multiple expansion. This stock is an industrial with an edge. Revenue and earnings predictability is on the high side and operationally it looks nothing like a tech stock. I suspect what we're seeing today is just bored money moving on....hopefully with a few less dollars....dollars that should be in our hands.

    See you guys next week.

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    • You may be right or it may be that the 'smart money' is moving out of the stock because they got some information that the rest of us don't.

      Earnings is due out Monday. I'm sure they have already calculated their numbers.

    • jbacci,

      Soon it may be time for more trading shares. I'll wait on earnings and the call first though. As you stated how bad could it be - fast money is leaving and it will soon be time to buy trading shares to sell back to them probably within a year when they come back.


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