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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • falsify321 falsify321 Nov 15, 2012 7:02 PM Flag

    lets hope those rates are decent

    hopefully the rates are good and then mgmt goes mute for the next 8 months .

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    • Honestly, this is probably exactly what is going to happen. TC will get the $350 million and go silent for a while. They will have what they want/need.

      As for the rate, dtime as usual probably doesn't understand how bond markets work. It is highly unlikely these rates will be 15%, let alone 12%. We are more likely looking at between 7% and 9%, depending on market conditions. These bonds are ranked very highly by both S&P and Moody's. So the rate is likely to be good and give a big boost to the stock. The idea of $350 million has not caused this stock to drop, so I think the only bad news left now would if TC was unable to get the money for under 10%. Once this funding is done, I don't see how the shorts can expect to run this stock anymore. The numbers can easily be crunched and it will be obvious that TC is a good company to own.

      It is important to recognize that TC's remaining 47.25% of the gold share, at current market prices, is today worth about $900 million dollars + cash costs of $435 per ounce. In other words, the 47.25% share is worth $900m after the costs of mining it are calculated. This $900 million dollars is more money than TC's entire debt load will be after Mt Milligan is completed. So even if someone was concerned about debt, you could say to them "TC could sell off the 47.25% remaining gold stream for $900m dollars and pay off all their debt, and have about $300m in cash".

      So then, technically, TC would be a company with $300m cash, zero debt, all their moly mines, plus the 100% copper stream from Mt Milligan. Am I saying this will happen? Not in a million years. But the point is that if this COULD happen it shows how good of a position TC is in. In this position, without any gold, but with zero debt, with moly at $15 TC would still be worth $8-10 a share. People seem to forget that, had Mt Milligan proceeded as planned, on budget, it would easily have been $30 a share when it was done. But going over budget by $600 million dollars does not bring a company down from $30 a share to $2 a share, like dtime would suggest. This is where basic math skills come in handy. And this is why big investors are pouring into TC.

      Once this deal is done, big investors will crunch the numbers using $350 million dollars in additional debt as the WORST case scenario. And they will see, using even that worse case scenario, that TC would still be worth way more than current share values.

    • 12% would be great but I think they will need to pay 15% reality bites for a company with no money, cheap moly that cost almost as much to get as they can sell it for. It would be better for tc to buy Moly and resell it. HUM thats a novel idea? rhymes with Boil; give up? Its Royal. LOL at you . You were warned sell before $2.00

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

0.2152-0.0148(-6.43%)Nov 27 1:01 PMEST