My god people what’s wrong with you? TC just diluted you shares yet again and all you can say is that dtime said it would be at 12 % and its only at 9.75% and your laughing????? Every quarter your common share gets diluted further and further and the banter on this site makes me think you’re ok with that.
First with a gold offtake then a loan, then another loan, then another offtake then tmeds then “we’ll stop producing Thompson Creek”, then ANOTHER loan.
I hate to tell you but your common share has been whittled down to nothing. You can look at the future revenue all you want but you’re not going to see any of it. It’s all going to go to someone else.
TC’s management has shown complete incompetence over the last 6 quarters, well beyond what can be attributed to circumstances and this latest move removed any benefit of a doubt I was giving them.
As much hope as I had for an opportunity here, it doesn’t exist. Thanks to those of you that have provided valued and intelligent opinions on this company but I’m moving on.
Good Luck, you will need it.
I agree with rbnorth, Thompson Creek management has done a disservice to the shareholders. I agree that dtime has been correct in his post. The biggest problem with dtime is his truth about the company and his rough grating attitude. Perhaps Mr. dtime is one of the only pioneers who truly understands the gift he claims he has. I wish I was as good as Mr. dtime, as he has consistently been correct.
There's one flaw in your growing pessimism for TC: if, as you assert the company's prospects is worse off now than it was in May, then why is it receiving a substantially lower interest rate (9.75%-10%) on the new $350M loan when previously it was forced to accept a rate of 12.5% on a smaller loan of $200M?
9.75-10% on recent 350 million financing is not good news. No one else is paying more than a 3-4% for money these days. Lenders are demanding payment for the substantial risk that TC presents. Sorry Seabrook, this is not good new for shareholders.
The company may not be worse off but the common shares are. Money that would go to the shareholders now goes to service debt. The company may be doing great but the earnings aren't going to the common shares.
You just say that all the money is going to go to someone else, but you don't know anything about TC so you can't back that up. It's hyperbole at its finest. You thank people for "intelligent opinions", yet you don't give any on your exit. You say this $350 million dollar loan is dilution, but you clearly don't understand TC's intentions for it. This money isn't going to be used on Mt. Milligan, it will be kept through 2013 and used for general corporate purposes and perhaps to allow molybdenum to be stockpiled if prices are not good. If Mt Milligan is launched and TC begins producing product there, then they will have a large cash balance which will be used to pay down their other debt with higher coupons.
So if you want to leave, and sell off, go for it. But use some logic on the way out. Don't blame some phantom share dilution, because it makes you look foolish. Here, I'll give you a few logical reasons you could sell right now:
1) I believe Mt Milligan is going to go over budget again
2) I believe Mt Milligan is going to be significantly delayed, due to winter or other reasons
3) I believe that commodities are going to crash, such as gold and copper
4) I don't believe molybdenum prices will recover next year
Those are some reasonable reasons why someone might not want to sell, and any serious investor would list these. So take your pick. But to simply come in here and start ranting about all the debt they have taken, and gold they have sold off, shows that you have little understanding of how this company actually works and are unable to look at the bigger picture.
for my followers witness with your own eyes as more longs are using their eyes to see the truth of tc falling to the $2.00 range as I have said tc is a strong sell. We welcome all longs to the dtime camp. As a leader of the boardI have said for a while tc is a PONZI STOCK for the bag holders. Stock brokers have done you a disservice by selling you tc. Just look at this years chart. The truth will set you free. Loans to bay back other loans!!! This is like the social security fund.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I suggest you look at my past posts in July and August before you flippantly reply "but you don't know anything about TC so you can't back that up" to my post. I owned TC years ago and sold for a healthy profit then began considering it again when I discovered it's share price had plummeted. My logic for leaving is a very detailed NPV analysis which includes all the interest and principal payments required to service their debt. The spreadsheet has been revised repeatedly since August to incoporate "just one more" hit to the eps forcast (additional loans, tmeds, more offtake to Royal, changing the mining plan for Thompson Creek, and yet another debt instrument. Each revision decreased the eps , and I have seen the forcast 2015 share price drop and drop and drop. A new 350MM @ 9.75% adds about $92MM/year in interest and principal on a debt burden that is currently $142MM in addition to what ever payments the Caterpillar agreement has. Last analysis I have shows an Operating Income of $232MM, so with finance charges of $142MM +$92MM you're pretty much breaking even. Thats an eps of ZERO. Sorry there are better options out there. GMO being the most obvious..