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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • meyer13meyer meyer13meyer Jan 27, 2013 10:51 AM Flag


    More good news on TC short interest...actually increased in the last month....Couldnt ask for a better news

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Right now you can pick any m-stock and short it. No talent here!!!

    • Probably, sooner. than later this stock is going to explode to the upside .I think it will start moving in anticipation of the mine opening in sept. Anyone who has examined the proven reserves and when they start enriching the bottom line inthe fourth quarter we could be over 10 ,The float is too thin to short and money on the sidelines should start appearing . When you start adding 3 bucks from one mine to your bottom line ( before costs).

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to bobbibedahlia
      • For one thing, No mining stock moves up that fast. For another, the fact is no mining stock moves unless gold/silver go up. Ridiculous, but true. In 30 years I have never seen a mining stock move against the market purely on a fundamental evaluation basis. How they get away with it is unknown? Other sector companies make more money the stock goes up. PM companies are the exception. Go out and check, I challenge you to find just (1) m-stock that went up when gold/silver were in a range of trading, much less a declining one. Good Luck!!!

      • Aren't they all...And it is because???

      • agreed. $10 might be a little aggresive. I did a financial model based on Cu $3.5/lb, GOLD$1600/oz, moly $12/lb by the end of this year, i got $8.5 PPS.

        The longs' only risk is that if the 4Q results is not good, then the stock could retest 3.80ish or even 3.20ish if the market is really crazy that time. then the longs don't buy at the "bottom" , but who can timing the prices anyway? also this has very low possibility according to my analysis.

        The shorts' risk is that if the 4Q results is fairly good, then the stock will gap up above $5 in a couple hours after the results out, and will never have a chance to re-test $4 level anymore.
        Have a Look at the milestones left on the gant chart of the company, the only thing left from the MM project is very risk limited(wrap out the SAG mechanical stuff will take a quarter to do!? come on, this apprently is giving them some cusions), so shorts who targeted below $6, will be burnt deadly right after the quarter results.

        Dtime worried about the cash flow before which is a good point actually, but i did a quite conservative model(assuming the total Operation cost incurr upfront on a quarterly basis ), and the cash flow never shows negative, not even close! and by the end of 2014, the company will be able to pay back each dime of debt if they want(although i think they don't want to do this until the end of 2015 or so). This is based on Cu $3/lb and gold$1500/oz, moly $12/lb.

        Anyone did similar analysis?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy