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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • ultraific2 ultraific2 Feb 27, 2013 4:42 PM Flag

    Sky is not Falling...

    As appears to be the case, no?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Ultra and Foggie,

      While I agree with our positive scenarios - hashed and rehashed over the last several years, the possible direction of moly and copper pricing due to 1) more global production coming online, and 2) possible / probable global growth slowdown gives me a little pause.

      If the moly price craters, AND if MtM has some significant delays coupled with lower production or lower production yields plus weaker copper pricing due to global growth weakness - where would that leave us in Q-1 2014 or Q-2 2014? To me it appears that without a rebound, in moly pricing, coupled with an erosion in copper pricing TC has a razor thin margin of error? Ultra, I know you have mining industry experience, and while MtM may not be a complicated project compared to some, but it seems to me there is still a potential for a number of issues at the start up of operations such as this.

      U.S. economic data is weaker than projected, and with nObama in the Whitehouse, I have little faith in the fact things will get much better - I can easily project a number of scenarios where he could completely derail the nascent U.S. recovery. He will not work with congress at all, and he is focused on trying to ram through an agenda by appealing emotionally to an uninformed public which will have the U.S. on the same path as Europe - and we all see how well THAT is working out over there!

      China has been the growth engine of the world for the better part of two decades, but hard facts appear to say they are slowing down a lot faster than is being reported, and while they have passed a significant stimulus package, it is very hard to trust any data (or policy) coming out of China. They have a political-economic agenda unique unto themselves.

      There is a new SA article on TC by Stephen Simpson, wonder if you two could take a look at that article and comment on it? I had expected more robust global growth than we are seeing this quarter, and that gives me a little pause at the moment.

      • 2 Replies to retaoba
      • Retaoba,
        The headwinds from slow global growth are one of the primary reasons holding back this stock right now.

        With greater production coming from the TC mine in 2013-2014 (vs. 2012), moly won't act as an anchor to future Milligan 2014 earnings. That's what really matters. Endako's little water problem will probably put the zap Q1-2013 earnings however, as the costs will be high in Q1.

        The future of this company is a bet on Milligan, and it is a red-black bet. But in this case, a win on black pays 3 to 1, vs. the customary 2 to 1. Think of it that way.

        Gotta git.

        Good luck.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • The title of this post is "Sky is not Falling...", however in early 2009 the sky was in fact falling and falling fast. In those dark days copper went to $1.25. That same year, 2009, the economic feasibility study began for Mt. Milligan. Due to recent experience earlier that year, they used $1.60 for copper in that report.
        So, the only way I see the copper not being profitable is if we have another global meltdown. If you believe that is possible, I know a company that owns the 2nd largest gold reserve in Canada.

        It is hard to put China into perspective because it is so big. This year, a slow year, the amount of subsistance farmers moving into urban housing for the first time equals the entire population of Australia. By 2030 they will have over 200 cities with population greater than 1 million people. Adding on the order of a "Chicago" every month for the next couple decades. Even at that pace, demand is outstripping supply and the real estate market is out of control....that has nothing to do with the central government trying to relieve the pressure on the supply side. And that takes material. Lots of it.

        That is the big picture macro floor. What I find fasinating is the physical copper ETFs coming online this year and how that will move copper prices on the margin. Once there is a market in copper bullion, will doomsday preppers start hoarding this as they do physical gold and silver? Time will tell...this year!!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nope unlike some here would have one to believe.

1.59+0.01(+0.63%)Feb 27 4:05 PMEST

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