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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • jacktrade175 jacktrade175 May 1, 2013 1:23 PM Flag

    sold out today, i will come back after earning


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    • oops

    • Don't get too cute.

      They may have sunk (and barring that, certainly dampened) the current quarter with a preventable ice fiasco at Endako, but the mere absence of disclosure regarding yet another quarter-destroying foul-up might act as an excellerant underneath the share price.

      If production at TC mine progressed as planned in Q1, they will be cycling their low cost production out-the-door as final sales by at least Q2, almost exclusively. [Remember: Q4 production was good, and cash cost was low - - two quarters of that, and that material starts moving out the door - - since they use FIFO, and their higher cost inventory overhang from previous quarters (with its higher costs) sells out first and should be virtually all gone by Q2.]. That means moly profits will perk up, irrespective of price, based on lower production costs alone. That might be enough to give the shares a big jolt, by itself.

      On that note, do know that prices for moly oxide FOB North America are higher than what is often mistakenly taken as a proxy of worldwide pricing , that being LME Moly Oxide contract price , which is lower than NA pricing by almost two dollars a pound, in the spot market. This spread has been widening since Jan 1. TC should benefit as they pick up more spot pricing orders that would have gone to their Utah-based competitor, since they've declared force majeure.

      Any hint that TC will be earning decent money again (and soon), this stock will quickly retrace the lost ground since Feb.

      Over and out.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy