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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • retaoba retaoba May 9, 2013 11:16 AM Flag

    Anyone think we'll hit $4.50 today?!?

    I was not expecting to see $4 for a couple of months yet, but given the tome of the call, the decent news and the number of investment firms represented on the call I can't say I am surprised...Will we blow past $4 and hit $4.5?
    More importantly, where will we close and what is the level of support.?
    Ultra, foggie, any thoughts after digesting some of the information on the conference call?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • The call was long.

      Lots of questions at the end, some repeated as if the analysts were trying to cross-referencing Kevin.

      Wasn't too impressed by the questions.

      Questions regarding post-commercial production by analysts were all dumb: The analysts acted all surprised and shocked you don't immediately come out-of-the-gate running 100% on the mill. Come on ?!? Kevin should have referred them to p. 16-54 of Terrane's NI 43-101, and laid out in more detail in Table 18.17. It's all spelled out there by month. No major concerns as we'll be in the 90% (of capacity) range with three months and recoveries of gold will be 90% spec within 6 mths.

      Nobody asked about expected impact on TC of effective shut-down of Rio/Kennecott's Bingham Canyon, it's effect on TC picking up lots of new, spot business, and expected effect on North American pricing (which is higher right now, already, than Asia). Was wanting to hear that one, none of the children asked it. So I'll ask IR tomorrow.

      Kevin didn't answer questions regarding the TC mine, and it's status very well.
      a) Phase 8 has two stages, 8E and 8W, an is the final pushback TC mine will ever have to do. He didn't mention this. Most of the cost associated with Phase 8, collectively, is linked with the Phase 8E pushback. A good chunk of the $100mm he quoted is associated with raising and staggering the tailing impoundment dam, which raises the dam almost 100ft., steepening the slope. This won't begin until next summer at the earliest, since the tailing dam requires cycloned tailings, and these are easiest to apply in the summer. Project economics go up if Phase 8E is eliminated.

      b) He said the grades would go DOWN after Phase 8. This is only true for the first 3 years after Phase 8 pushbacks are completed. After that, you start getting into the lowergrades in pitwall, and headgrades then go up, sharply. He's trying to plant the seed with analysts so when TC does go on C&M for a year, nobody freaks out.

      CONTINUED...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to ultraific2
      • The TC mines operations won't be shuttered for long, as TC is trying to just avoid another cash outlay right now, in advance of Milligan. That, and they need to do a small land swap with Depf. of Interior, and need an EIS because of that. So some regulatory hassles are present as well.

        c) Phase 8 pushbacks carry mining at TC mine out to 2025. Since this final pushback is dealing with proved and probable reserves, the cost of the pushbacks ($100mm est.) will be capitalized and amortized over the life of the remaining ore body using units-of-production method. So $100mm is not a hit to the P&L, all at once. It will bleed in over 12-13 yrs, by way of amortization.

        Dork analysts didn't appear to know this one, but Kevin didn't point it out, either.

        Several years before TC mine is done with it's open pit, they will drill the bottom of the pit, looking for skarn-type deposits enriched w. moly for possible underground operation, but that's years off. It's there, but they cannot access it using standard truck-shovel open-pit mining techniques.

        Kevin missed discussing Sojitz when the talk turned to Endako. They employ Sojitz (who is a partner) as their Asian distributor, as well. They cannot shut down Endako, unfortunately, since they need to keep their Asian contract customers, and that material comes from Endako.

        Ok, enough crying about poor quality of the Q&A....

        Positives:

        1) good production and strong TC mine-sourced unit sales.

        2) Kevin opened up about true mine life of Milligan. Honestly, you need to read the NI 43-101. It's 481 plus pages, but the Mineralization and Exploration sections discuss another deposit 2 km west of the planned WBX/MBX/Southern Star Milligan pits that hasn't had more that half-dozen shallow drills poked into it. All indicate similar deposit mineralization type to Milligan. Milligan will be a 50 year mine, present day variables considered.

        3) Reiterated efforts to clean up Endako, and their getting back into the Endako pit.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • imho I am guessing $4 we may hit by tomorrow, but more likely next week. The big boys need to get in & that takes time (volume). They may be willing to pay a 10-15% premium now that the question marks have been answered & less risk involved. So Im guessing 3.65-3.75 entry points then steady climb starting next week. Added more at the open at 3.45, very happy.

    • Nearly to $4.00, depends on lost of factors - afternoon volume, pent up demand (lots of that) not a lot of stock for sale I would venture to say, as no true longs are going to sell under $10 or so...
      Buyers may shake stock out of the day traders looking for a quick 50 cents, or traders that were hoping to use this (mistakenly) as a gold hedge that want to bail, but that's about it.
      Recent 12 month high is $4.55, and we could certainly test that number.
      Realistically the stock should climb over book value and stay there, but it depends also on metals pricing and it may take another solid quarter with no hiccups to do that. Then again, maybe not. Looking forward to ultra's call analysis, when he gets the time...
      I am reluctant to add right now, but that's primarily because the size of my position is...imprudent to say the least. But, I am quite happy today!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Strong volume that seems to keep increasing. $4.50 might be a stretch but I have seen stranger things happen......

    • Will have to catch call later today. Have some work to do, and hay fever is slowing me down. Pollen kicking me hard today. I'll get back to you, but the numbers in Q are nice. I like them, and numbers for Q2 will be much better if unit volumes hold up since we'll be soon selling [exclusively] material produced at low costs [production from Q4-12, and Q1-13]. We need that juice.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Imo, word is just getting out on this stock market Lazarus, Phoenix, or whatever you want to call this turn around. I expect upgrades and many more, to pile into this grossly oversold stock.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
TC
2.32+0.07(+3.11%)3:28 PMEDT

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