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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • wrlance53 wrlance53 Jun 20, 2013 11:36 AM Flag


    Unfortunately, your post circa FEB13 where you calculated a $10 share price by 31DEC13 has fallen off the message board history (great post, btw). I just picked up another 500 $5 JAN14 call options for $15 a piece. I need TC to hit $5.25 by January 24th to break even (I have a $25 cost basis). Now that the shoe has offically dropped that the Fed will end QE3 in 2014 and assuming gold will hover around $1300, copper around $3 and Moly around $11; what do you give my chances of breaking even (or better) with a successful launch of Milligan? Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Unfortunately, if you look at a 25 year chart or longer, the outlook for gold isn't rosy. I wasn't thrilled when TC bought a gold mine. I don't like gold miners, they don't make money. If I wanted to own gold, I'd buy gold. Regardless of what TC does from here on out, I should have listened to my head and ran. Gold shot up because of fear. Fear is dissipating and so is the gold price. I really hope I'm wrong but gold sub $750 within 3 years. The only periods in which gold exceeded $750 since 1975 is 1979/80 and since the fall of 2005 to present. Other than those periods, gold has been sub $550.

    • 50-50. Sentiment has gone from sour to downright awful in the mining sector. Milligan won't be operating long enough (by time of Jan 2014 contract expiration) to have a reported impact to earnings. If it does go operational in Dec 2013, that will provide a lift to the stock on the news, but earnings from it won't be reported until end of Feb 2014. It won't earn much in Q4 anyway, as it's only scheduled to be operational for one month, and that is a ramp-up month. Gold miners are getting nuked. You might want to cap your bet until some the recently kicked-up dust, settles a bit. I don't like how things are rolling right now, economically speaking, and it has me a bit on edge. We don't need a collapse in metals prices one bit, and it's something that no one person can control.

      • 2 Replies to ultraific2
      • When sentiment is "downright awful", that is usually the best time to has gone from bad to awful, moly is nearly below the cost of production for most producers, and copper has to be getting near there for many producers, yes?
        As for gold, we may taper down the printing of money, but it seems to me like that horse is out of the barn already.
        gold may be a lousy 3 month trade, but as a 2 or 3 year trade, I would still have to bet on it.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Thanks for the reply. I am watching the developments in China with great interest. I still think they can save the day for us. New Gov't turned off the money spigot in February to cool the property market being run up through shadow banking (small banks). It still does not take away from their goal to move 100M people into cities during the next decade. C'mon China, kill the smaller banks and lets get going again!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Correction: Jan 17th

      • 1 Reply to wrlance53
      • ultra,

        yep, right now they are saying Gold should not even be in your portfolio. Heck people bought it b/c of inflation and that is non existent except for the average working Joe. Tell him there is no inflation! But as far as gold it's deflation right now!

        I bought June 3 call options about 4 months ago and thought that was solid, man what a dead call. The miners have been kicked in the dirt and now they are being spit on by their attacker and no one is there to help the poor fellow. That is how bad it is for miners and I don't see anything coming that will help. And I own TC, KGC, MUX and ACI. It's awful!