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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • shulman_knows shulman_knows Jul 1, 2013 11:12 AM Flag

    Welcome to the second part of 2013

    Outlook for H2 2013:
    Mt.Milly commissioning starts in July
    Production starts in August
    Commercial level reached in December
    Gold and Moly prices recover by December
    TC stock hits $9 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Shulman, I just don't see $9. You are far too optimistic. There are too many headwinds facing TC over the next 6 months. If we even hit $7.00 before the end of this year I will be so ecstatic I'll send you a nice bottle of wine, my treat.

      For TC to hit $9 they would have to have everything go perfectly and be 100% on schedule, plus the entire Board of Misdirectors would have to fart sunshine out of their #$%$, and not act surprised about it.

      You have the lower metals pricing, headwinds from the continually slowing Chinese economy (even IF they keep a full blown credit crisis at bay), Fed Stimulus tapering, interest rates rising, lack luster demand in the U.S. (with minimal actual job creation and the lack of meaningful infrastructure projects due to noboma), lack of demand (best case scenario) in Europe, Brazilian econmy slowing down and gold prices tanking. We're not even going to look at possible middle east and N Korea FUBAR scenarios. In short, the market is trading more on bad news than on fundamentals, and even with great fundamentals, there is just too much bad news to overcome, sunshine flatulence notwithstanding....

      We will go up, yes. Once Mt Milligan is actually verified as shipping ore with no major issues. The stock will eventually hit $9, and a whole lot higher. Just not this year, and likely not next year. Due to macro economic issues, this is now more of a longer term buy and hold play.
      If Mt Milligan was actually commissioned in Q-2, and in full production before Q-4, this would be a different story (more like a fairy tale, actually!).

      Credit Suisse forecasts as of 6/27/2013:
      "Copper: We are lowering our 2013 estimate from $3.39/lb to $3.30/lb, 2014 from $3.03/lb to $2.80/lb and our 2015 estimate from $2.80/lb to $3.05/lb."
      (Not sure if they meant from $3.05 to $2.80 on the 2015 forecast or not - but either way, still not much upside in copper until 2016/2017. And I think they may be too optimistic on the 2013 forecast as well.)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to dragon_legal_department
      • Happy Independence Day Everyone!

        I just wanted to add a shout out and thank to the UK aand ECB. With both the UK and ECB confirming continuing quantitative easing for the foreseeable future, the continued expansion by the BOJ of Japan, and the (hoped for) clarification by the Fed (Uncle Ben) next week that they may have jumped the gun just a wee bit with the tapering talk, maybe we can see at least one of the economic headwinds facing TC mitigated.

        I am at least a little more optimistic than I was earlier this week due the these two announcements, coupled with the news that Uncle Ben has a little speech to give. And so far at least, the military coup in Egypt seems to be going about as well as one could reasonably expect.

        We can't get cocky, as that still leave the enormous elephant in the room, China, as well as the mess brewing in Brazil both contributing to the downward pressure in metals pricing.

        I'd really like to see moly stabilize around $13 and copper around $3.50. (I'd also like to see nobama and the entire congress impeached for allowing the United States credit rating to be downgraded last year, but hey, that's not going to happen either.)

        If we can at least avoid a "China Fear" full metals meltdown (and another credit downgrade to the US) well, that may be as good as we can hope for.

        Sure would like to see TC hit $6 this year and $9 by the end of next year, but that is probably stretching our hopes waaaay too thin...

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • While I hope you are right, I would be happy with $1B market cap by December.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy