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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 8, 2013 1:53 PM Flag

    OT - your next (or current) favorite pick besides TC?

    We have some good investment minds on here, and I'd like to have a chance to pick each other's brains for ideas.

    Mining stocks may have more to fall before they can grow, especially if things in China turn out like I predict they may over the next 6-12 months. I will look for an entry point to pick up financially solid, low cost producers, but I believe most metals have more near term downside than upside, along with too much production capacity.

    I am not going to sell my TC stock, but that holding is now more in the long term holding category for me (over 36 months, and possibly a lot longer) due to events beyond TC's control.

    For new picks I like (and own) GST, - up about 10% today, it is riskier than TC (yeah, I know, hard to believe THAT) but with a nice possible upside of 200% - 300% from the current levels.
    They are in oil, which I like as a long term trend, they operate in the US shale, which I also like as a long term trend, and they have a smart management team behind them, which I always look for.

    A small cap, but as I just said, management really seems to know what they are doing. They have made a couple of nice, accretive trades recently. For the latest one, they bought a nice chunk of acreage from Chesapeake Energy and just sold the lessor half of it for what they paid for the entire lot, essentially netting out the more productive acreage (and proven half) for free...
    I could see them getting bought out for a nice premium over the next year or two.

    I really like EOG in this space, but I'm not sure how much upside resides with it's current valuation. Especially with oil up right now on the Egyptian mess. I would look at EOG on pullbacks, as well as NOV, DVN and DNR.
    Throw in UPL for long term NAT GAS bullishness.

    For non energy stocks, I like SZYM, a possible market disputer with proprietary tech and good mgt. and it looks like it's offering up a decent entry point right now too.

    Plus I like INVN, ARCO and DNKN for long term growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • HIMX and GTAT have been good to me and still have room to run. Lots of volatility though.

    • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Jul 11, 2013 12:56 PM Flag

      I am going to reiterate GST. Oil prices look to be strong domestically through the end of the year. Stock has popped 20%, but I am targeting an upside of 7.50 or so by the end of 2014/beginning of 2015.
      Analysts are targeting $.50 p/s revenue for 2014. If GST hits that, the industry average multiple is just over 14x.

      I can't tell you if this is the best entry point you'll get, or if there will be a better one. (If I was that good, I'd be charging for this advice lol.) I can tell you that Director John Michael Selser Sr. purchased 10,000 shares of GST, at a cost of $2.90 each, for a total investment of $29,000.
      That is what I call stepping up, and to me, it signals a floor of sorts. I'll personally be looking to add more on any pullbacks.
      I can also tell you there is the possibility of a lot of good news coming out over the next 3-4 weeks. It would be worthwhile to spend an hour or two researching this one.....

      Today I bought a few NOK Jan2015 Leaps, just for fun. They have a cool new phone launch today, and the Microsoft restructuring news today may prove to be a long term catalyst here too. Looks like it could be kind of interesting.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • YY. Volatile but strong income (not earnings, income) growth. China sector so DD needed.
      Disclosure- Own. Sell at $50.

      • 2 Replies to formercritic
      • YY had a nice run since I lasted posted. I sold to book the profit. I still see TC dropping before Labor day to mid $2's. For me, it will be a value play at that price. I still think the market will have a correction in the next 4 weeks. Somewhere in that time fram there will most likely be another scare about the fed turning off the QE pump which will affect the whole market.

      • You know, I used to own Baidu. I don't anymore. I just don't like China right now..
        1) The US has the strongest economy, globally.
        2) I don't trust the reporting of Chinese companies or the government. I consider all numbers out of China to be estimates at best. Even so called independently verified financials.
        3)For all intents and purposes, China is in the middle of an orchestrated recession. The Party rulers want to transition to a more consumerist based society. Will it work? Hard to say. Also really hard to gauge the effects of their moves.

        Having said that, I would buy FXI on any significant pullbacks.
        I would also buy US or international consumer companies with Chinese exposure (like a YUM).
        But that's about all I will do, and only if they look really cheap.
        TC is more than enough exposure to China for me at this point....

    • I would look into two most hated sectors: PM mining and coal. this is where the gains will be made.
      I like silver more that gold: CDE after all downgrades looks very cheap, AG has great upside on production increase. Also ABX is probably the most hated company right now, may be worth a look.
      Don't know much about coal: BTU is the largest out there and should do extremely well from the today's levels.
      One more: SSRI riskier silver miner trades below cash equivalent on books.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to shulman_knows
      • SWC is a good way to play in the PM area. Most analysts like platinum and palladium, and this is the least risky way to get exposure to them imho.

        I am leery of gold right now. Not sure if it has bottomed, or if it has further to fall.

        I do like SLW for a silver play over individual gold stocks, but I am not sure if this is a good entry point, or if there will be a better one upcoming....

        I personally think most coal companies may have more pain ahead of them before we see any gain, however the coal space has changed a lot since I last looked at it and I would need to do more research to comment intelligently.

        Have you tempered you enthusiasm for TC yet? I really like this company, but the stock has a lot of economic headwinds against it near term. I just don't see anyway we see $9 in a year, let alone this year.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Check out TSLA, it has gone from 40 to 120 in 3 months. I think they have earnings this week?

    • I have a small position in URZ. Positive news from Japan has helped offset the "shock" of the Russell de-listing.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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