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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • superlithe superlithe Jul 22, 2013 8:25 PM Flag

    Looks like a bungle.

    Sorry guys. TC had too much trouble building out Milligan. Cost overruns drove up the cost of financing. The T-MEDS are a terrible deal for common stock shareholders. The TMED holder gets the safety of a bond during the risky build out and the reward of an equity stake when the mine is actually in production. TC sold a huge portion of the gold stream to Royal Gold for small money. Royal Gold stock popped on the day details of the deal were announced. Gold prices themselves peaked and have begun to fall. Even today when gold pops 3% the market gives TC .2% or something like that.

    This is not a story about evil shortsellers or a misunderstood stock. It is the story of a sleepy, but effective moly miner who thought they could make the big time in gold and copper. They didn't have the management to pull this off, all the equity and profit stream has been squandered in a bungled build out.

    There are not good options. Maybe you hang around a few more months to see what happens, but this stock is probably fairly valued and your shares are dead money.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • First of all mining is a terribly capital extensive industry.Labor and machinery are a necessity and they aren't cheap Maybe in a third world country labor is less and there are no enviromental restrictions Look at Grasberg ,the FCX mine in Indonesia : labor problems cave ins killing miners . Milly is safely located in Canada and has got the licenses to start with enviromental safeguards.Are you telling me that for the first 6 years that taking out 123,000 oz of gold and over 100 million pounds annually of copper won't have an impact. Yeah RG gets 52.5 %of the gold but after the 435 dollar per ounce they pay to TC the rest goes on debt. Gold is 1300 an ounce this means the difference between 435 and the price of gold when the refined metal is turned over goes to reducing debt ( pg 62 of the annual report) that at 1300 bucks an oz will draw down debt rapidly management has estimated it will cost 690 bucks to mine an ounce of gold Royal gold pays 435 an ounce so we have about 600 bucks an ounce going to pay down debt . Copper costs about 1.60 to create a pound so the 1.50 a pound is all profit. MEtal prices fluctuate and you have to take risk and of course if Moly prices go up thats allgravy . Management should be congratulated for Mt Milligan .It doesn't take a rocket scientist or atheist to manage a mining company .So do the math and when you do you'll see THIS COMPANY IS WAY OVER SOLD. And yes, evil short sellers are hurting the price the nice thing is sooner or later they will have to cover

    • Actually you're right on most of your points (though as jefftag5 points out TC was up 4% today with today's rally in the miners). Where I disagree is that the common shares are dead money. They, as well as the tMeds, will appreciate presuming Mt. Milligan performs as promised.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Putting you on ignore for now. Why? Not because you're not a long.
      Two reasons.
      Either you're here trolling for some reason, or you really are that misinformed as to believe what you just said. If you are a troll, bye.
      If you believe this (and it is a possibility if you don't know much about TC and read one or two less than informative articles, I suggest you do a lot more research before broadcasting anymore "conclusions".
      This board is a little more serious and informed than most of the others on here.
      I would suggest about 8-10 hours of reading and background research on TC.
      There may be a number of misinformed people like you out there. That's ok. Plenty of time over the next 4-8 months or so to get on the train for a long gently sloping upward ride.
      This is not a get rich quick pop stock.
      It's called cash flow, and deleveraging the balance sheet. It's called investing.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to dragon_legal_department
      • "Deleveraging the balance sheet?" Does that mean trying to pay off a mountain of debt? Cash flow? Does strong cash flow result when your capital expenditures run 5X your original projections and you sell off future earnings at a huge discount for enough cash just to stay solvent today? Did it really take you 8-10 hours of "serious research" to learn all that? Your post is just more deluded, wishful thinking.

        Do you know that TC is not even maintaining the moly mines? They have stopped removing overburben and are just mining the richest, easiest ore in an effort to raise cash. The next story from management will go something like, "some adversity in the face of falling gold prices" and "expect improvement as operations return to normal in the moly mines" etc. etc. dead money for sure!

        Sentiment: Sell

    • 0.2% today?? hmm looks more like 4.18% to me

      Sentiment: Hold

2.70+0.05(+1.89%)Sep 16 4:02 PMEDT

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