My predictions is the August earnings will be flat,however the Novembers will realy start the upward trend .I suspect the stock should blast off soon. Gold finally has bottomed and copper too . Once the mine opens the debt willstart to drop and that should please analysts
I am not very good at predicting what TC is going to earn quarter to quarter. This has been proven in the past. (Although, in my defense I appear to have a lot of company in that regard.)
I will be a little disappointed however, if we don't either get a nice bounce, settling down to a higher base price than where are currently until the next quarter earnings come out, or a little pop that will be the start of a gradual up trend continuing from here until .....2015, 2016, 2017 etc???
I do believe what is said on the conference call is going to have more impact than the actual earnings on this call. We want to hear that Mt Milligan is on schedule and looking good. No snafus, breakdowns, bad hedges, etc etc etc of any kind anywhere in the company.
Is it fair to say that the drop has already taken place IF we have bad earnings? I feel like this fall from the $3.60's was because everyone thought metal prices were taking a dump and going to effect our earnings. So I don't think bad earnings will hurt as much as everyone thinks. If we have earnings in line with expectations and good news on MM it should shoot up real nice. If we bad earnings and good news on MM I still think we get a moderate bounce. Is this a bad way to look at things going into Aug 8th?
Certainty in world markets and the world economy will bring the bottom for gold. Do you see certainty? The price of copper is already high based on the story of U.S. housing market "recovery". Where is the catalyst for a copper price increase?
While I wish it were true and you were right---I really think 2nd quarter number will be bad --moly prices are lower than 1st quarter--while milligan should start showing revenue in the third quarter and production scales in the 4th quarter--you probably will not see positive EBITDA until 1st quarter next year---unless moly prices do a big time reversal and head way up---I, however fear, that the moly operations will be put on care and maintenance for a while until moly prices pick back up
Unfortunately, I can't agree with you in this regard. Moly prices have continued to come down... most likely lower than the average cost to mine. Next quarter will likely even be worse as they finish through the stockpiled aggregate and need to start again on pure mining.. the thrid quarter not quite capturing MM output. Fourth quarter may be a decent one as we have seen several country manufacturing indexes rise .... obviously a higher need than expected for raw materials. There also was a mention of higher iron ore usage this week. First quarter next year should reflect a better return as we finally will see some MM output.