TC will issue a new release which will propel the stock price. Will it be good progress at Milligan? Will it be good news about future mining at the TC mine? Will it be guidance for 2014?
"Thompson Creek Suspends Moly Mining" "Future of Endako Mine in Question" You have to get past those two headlines first, maybe then something good can happen. Right now, those two future headlines are giving the stock a hangover.
Sometime in the first quarter.......maybe mid-February.....
They will report be at there were NO reportable safety accidents in the month of.............. November.......... 2013....
If not that,
- - it will be that they've selected a winner in the contest to create a new "sustainable-themed" mural design to put up in the gym / work-out room at the new permanant resident camp.....!!!!!!!!
- - a local 13 yr. old First Nation's girl, Samantha Proudfoot ,will claim the $500 prize.....she'll be all smiles.....
The inside dope is she wanted Santa to get her an X-Box for Christmas, and the new Call of Duty Version 8 game, but her Dad blew the Christmas money on new ice fishing gear and snowmobile parts.........so Jacques pulled a few strings for her........
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"The company stated that throughput has been as high as 35,000
- 43,000 tpd for five consecutive days" That was on what, Dec 5th? 36,000 tpd being 60% of 60,000 tpd. Or are you saying it will be 30 consecutive days of 60% run rate? 'Cause that probably wouldn't be announced until early next year. I agree though, company should have made an press release announcing when 36,000tpd was achieved for 2 or 3 straight days, not wait for 30.
As Perron has repeatedly said, I don't expect a quick announcement on the moly operations until mid year +/-.
As Ultra has said, they will continue to produce moly at least through 2014.
Coincidentally (there are no real coincidences) Mt Milligan should be at or near cash flow positive by that time.
We should also have good clarity on metals prices by then too. (Hint - I don't see the bottom dropping out - an upside surprise in metals prices would be nice but I won't count on that either.)
The next "big" announcement will be guidance on Mt Milligan for 2014. I suspect that will come on the Q4 2013 CC. It would be fantastic if it were real eased sooner than that, but I have not seen any information to cause me to bet on that happening.
When that happens, finally some analysts just might start to understand that with a fully operational Mt Milligan, idling the moly operations will not hurt TC to the degree they seem to be anticipating now.
At this point, we shall see what we shall see, and it will be what it will be. Let's let Perron do what he is supposed to be so good at. Execution.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nobody has bothered to THINK FORWARD about this one, but let me ask a rhetorical question.....
If TC idles their entire moly operations, who are they helping........???
Other moly producers.....since the loss of 30mm lbs. annually is enough to move the needle on prices, now,
Note on Sierra Gorda (which is spooking a lot of analysts who track moly...): it won't be in full production (of moly by-product) until back half of 2015.....everyone is worried about this one but KGHM is looking at start-up delays that will push them into Q3-2014, and possibly Q4-2014, because of construction delays that occurred this year. They won't begin to run the rich moly ore thur their mill until later in 2015 because it will take time to get at it in their undug pit..(!!!!). All the analysts are assuming 50mt drops on the world market Day One of operations.....it don't work that way... life don't work that way............
So something within TC's moly side of the business WILL stay open, otherwise, TC is just making FCX and Jim Bob (Moffett...) a little richer than they already are........
And hopefully what stays open ISN'T that pig called Endako.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Closure of Endako would be optimal, since there is only limited potential to further reduce costs there without significantly higher grades. Idling Endako would provide several benefits:
a) eliminates approx. 14-15mm lbs of moly production from worldwide supply, at a time when more moly supply is coming onto the market.
b) eliminates the need to renew the expired collective bargaining agreement with USW local 1-424, that represents the Endako workers.
c) removes a money losing operation that has been a black eye for TC since 2011.
Closure of TC mine is NOT optimal, since it is their low cost producer.
I suspect they seriously explore their "options" there before they idle it.
My guess is if they opt to keep TC mine open, they scale down the extent of the Q2-2015. The reason for waiting is the tailing dams need to be raised (they secured the permits to do this from State of Idaho back in 2008...) and the dams are made from cycloned sands. You can't layer that stuff up in freezing conditions, so they will wait for spring and snow melt to pass (hence Q2).
As far as production gaps, who cares. They have 9.2mm lbs. in inventory, and at the rate they are cranking out for the balance of Q4-2013 and 2014, will likely have that much FG moly inventory on hand at YE 2014.
During 2014, TC mine will start rapidly building stockpile, so if the TC mine is idled for a period of time in 2015, the mill there can process. If they do do a limited strip of Phase 8, all the mining crew will be re-deployed to move material. In the past (2009-2011), TC actually outsourced the stripping to an outfit called American Asphalt (a local Idaho road builder) because TC simultaneously mined
and commenced stripping (there wasn't enough earthmoving equipment on site to do both internally at the same time.....). That was expensive. This time around, I expect them to stop mining there, and use the mine crews for stripping, leaving the mill to run stockpiled ore that they build in '14.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I could be wrong, but I don't recall Perron repeatedly saying a decision on moly operations will be made in mid year 2014. Perron is finalizing a budget for 2014, and the budget should include expenses for TC mine's future operations. I would hope for an announcement in early 2014.
Dont know. But part of me thinks that whatever news they get out, Perron would do it in one big release/announcement. Guidance, whether they'll idle any mines, take any other writeoffs, etc etc. Simply, I would think he gets all the news he can in one fell swoop instead of a chinese water torture of drip drip drip. Just a guess.