I'll answer my own question: the bonds are down a bit but not all that much over the past few weeks. The 12.5s are around par, down from 103-ish, and the 7.375s are trading 86, off from 89-ish during this time.
If there was any genuine concern for TCs viability, the bonds -- traditionally the "smarter money" -- would be taking a good whacking. Not 3 pts, mind you, but 10s of points. There's clearly a disconnect here. This too shall pass.
Moringingstar has the bond UP today, and UP from my last post about a week or so ago on this very subject.
9.75% note issue is selling at 111, with CY 8.81% and YTM of 6.73%
7.375% note issue is selling at 86.2, with CY 8.56% and YTM of 11.42%
12.5% note issue is selling at 104.1, with CY of 12% and YTM of 11.44%
There isn't much substance to the sell off in the common since mid Nov., because if their was, the bonds would be tanking, and they are doing the opposite (of tanking), and are actually moving up in price since the release of Q3 info.
The bonds are moving up, and the shares are selling off on year-end tax-loss selling largely generated by some speculative in-house brokerage research designed to create some in-house churn. That's about it.
The low prices are a steal for this one at this point because there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company, just a rather large amount of unfounded BS and unpessimism floating around.
To my point, the latest CIBC research had speculated that TC's best (lowest cost producer) moly mine (the Thompson Creek mine) would be closed IN A MONTH and based their liquidity analysis & numbers on that assumption...
Thanks Ultra. I looked up the bond charts on morningstar website. The first bond due 2017 is trading at 6.73% YTM like you just mentioned. Interesting that its trading at a higher price TODAY (when the hysteria of bankruptcy is rampant) than it was when it was first issued about a year ago.
Ultra - When do you anticipate the PPS will stabilize? What are the predictions for the share price in 2014. Will it remain stagnant around $2.00 or are there any major positive developments in the pipeline. I entered after the mine started operations, but paradoxically the stock has taken a big hit since.