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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • larrry46 larrry46 Feb 25, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    TC Price?

    With Moly heading toward 11$, gold creeping up, and copper holding steady why is TC still less than 50% of book value. I would think that if the T-med short trade were truly holding the price back some big player would pick up on that and take advantage of it. Buying a truck load of shares and forcing a squeeze and the price closer to at least book value? You can't tell me all the pumpers on this board know more than the "smart money". And if smart money designed the T-med short trade for the the 6.5% with no skin in the game why wouldn't someone else pickup on it and load the boat why it's cheap or hell even just buy the whole company?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Not very likely, the big hedge fund guys typically don't mess with little companies like this, they're on the lookout for much bigger fish. The T-Meds are probably held by a buch of trust fund puppies, those are the one that go the arbitrage deals like this.
      You make a point regarding a buyout though. This company should be really attractive to a number of players - but again, the M&A activity in the mining sector has been in the doldrums. Should that begin to heat up now it could be a different story. And let this company pay down about $300 million in debt, and if the stock is not appreciably over $6, someone will swoop in and gobble them up pretty quick.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • What is interesting of late is moly pricing. From mid Jan to mid Feb the price held steady at 10.22. Now, the price seems to be changing almost daily - 10.22-10.77-10.43 and now 10.66.

    • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Feb 27, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

      It is possible someone may decide to buy the company in the next year or two. I hope not, as I believe shareholders won't realize the full value of TC if that happens, but I could see TC being an attractive (and very cheap) acquisition for a major miner right now. Especially a miner dealing with less friendly mining jurisdictions like South America or Indonesia.....TC presents very little risk and no downside, and would be accretive to earnings very quickly. A major could refi or pay off the debt with no problem.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Then I see TSLA is sky rocketing and it's tangible book value is at or below TC's!

      • 1 Reply to larrry46
      • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Feb 27, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

        Apples to Oranges. TSLA is purely a momentum play, too many dollars chasing too few shares. Different industries, everything totally different. TC is a play on debt deleveraging right now, with a free call on the prices of moly, copper and gold should any of them rise. More of a pure value play. Certainly not a momentum play in any way shape or form.
        I would not buy Tesla at these levels. Not saying its a bad or a good idea, just that TC will triple long before TSLA triples, from their current prices.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Good question.

    • I would agree except for your assertion that copper pricing is holding steady. The negative macro news from China has provided, as I feared, a negative bias to copper pricing. Hopefully the downward trend is only temporary (and arguably minimized by the upward trend in gold and silver pricing). Meanwhile the real big news is the new higher moly pricing. Hopefully that has staying power.

      Sentiment: Buy