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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • carlrich carlrich Feb 25, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Ultra re: Ni 43-101

    I went to the Sedar website and wasn't able to pull up the relevant document on TC. Then went to the other link you suggested (TC modified mine plan....). There, I was able to review the plan for the extension and land swap. It raised a few questions in my mind. Is the TC mine only authorized through 2016? The request for the extension/land swap will extend the mine another 15yrs. This plan was submitted nearly 3 1/2 yrs ago. A decision was suppose to have come out in Jan 2014. You seem pretty sure we'll hear news in late Mar. I did not see any announcement date in the materials I read. Did you call them? How likely is it that there will be further delays? How likely is it that the plan will be approved? Do you think this is a significant overhang for the stock or do you feel analysts have simply written off the moly operations due to the C&M announcement?

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    • Nice work on this thread. Lots of solid information, and some good give and take. And it's all public verifiable information, (online, 10k, reports and such).
      I also like the fact there are only a few spam posters on this board with nothing to add - of course they tend to like the really active boards lol - this is too boring of an issue for them to stay focused (that's good - love these value plays!)
      This looks like it will turn into one of those good old fashioned value stocks - seems like a good time to be accumulating this year, unless metal prices pop and this stock gets ahead of itself. Don't think that's too likely though.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Carlrich and Ulra ---- no question about it ---- this post and thread re NI 43-101 represents a masterpiece of advanced bureaucratic gobbledegook and jabberwock ---- I could not even begin to get my puny brain to begin to get an idea about what you failed to communicate in this Homeric effort ---- as I said before, logic was never my strong suit at P.S. 69 and Sedars / NI 43-101 are waaayyyy above my GD ----- but. nonetheless --- nice try ---- having said that, where is TC / PPS headed (near term --- long term we are all worm food) --- Up or Down ???? Let's keep it real simple for a really simple dude /////// Cheers, leper //// :O)

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to rjcusn001
      • dragon --- thanks for your input on "near term" prospects for TC ----- I don't believe the Hebrew controlled financial press and its' bot / paid for stable of presstitutes and I sure as h - - - don't believe any government or Wall Street furnished statistics / data ---- your input confirms what I knew ---- I'm sitting at my computer playing liar's polka with folks I don't know who share a common TC gambling vice ----- but that's OK, b/c I know what I'm dealin' with ---- stay well, my friend, stay well /// leper /// :O)

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Feb 27, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

        Rj, it's not that hard, yes, tons there is of bureaucratic bs to wade through, but the information is there. I think Ultra with his mining background has done a masterful job of simplifying it as best it can be simplified.

        As for where the pps share is going short term? If you can read the charts, tea leaves, gauge the demand for the stock and the metals markets and guess correctly 55% of the time you'll be the first person I've ever met that can do that. Congrats. That's all just speculation, unless you're riding or front running a super trend like social media, wearable devices or fear induced gold buying. (All well and good until the trend ends.)

        Short term to us is this year, and we (I) expect the pps of TC could be anywhere between $4 and $7 ps around the beginning of next year. That's about as precise as I can be due to a number of factors none of us can account for very accurately.
        (Or, as they like to say in Hawaii, "More better no can get get".)

        If you want to try and trade the volatility that is sure to be present, best of luck to you, I am not a big fan of pure gambling, the odds are always in the houses favor.
        We believe that by doing more research than the average analyst that may have dozens if not hundreds of companies to keep track of, we can get just a small edge. Maybe enough to at least even the odds.

        The facts are all there, and if we are putting them together correctly, then all this "gobbledygook" as you put it could mean an extra $75-$150 million in TC's bank account by the end of FY 2015, or thereabouts - let me ask you a couple questions -

        - What would an extra (split the diff) 100 mill plus revenue mean to TC's pps?

        - How many analysts do you think have connected the dots here?
        (Maybe the BAML analyst, with his $7 pps target. ... and that's about it so far....)

        That's the real significance of this information on the PPS short term (about a year), since you asked.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Ultra - see comments

    • The BLM is going to be recommending (and approving) the Company's MMPO as the preferred alternative regarding the Mine Expansion (Phase 8). March 21, 2014 this goes into the Federal Register. This is a firm date. Few days afterward, they put the doc on the TC EIS webpage. The land swap has five alternatives, but the BLM is still on the fence for either full acceptance of TC's proposal or a BLM sale (to TC) of the land TC wants, and has about two more weeks to decide the fate of that one. But they like the land that TC is offering, and are leaning toward that. Land swap proposal is independent of the MMPO EIS. The land swap was TC's idea to ease future regulatory burden. I've done a lot of homework into the TC mine, and why the company would even begin to suggest the idea of C&M on it, when they decide to keep the higher-cost Endako operation rolling. Curiosity led me to all this EIS process material, esp. after reading the latest 43-101 on the TC Mine. Read Section 23 of that. The decision to announce/declare C&M at YE 2013 (vs. YE2014 as they had always said) is really based on some GAAP trickery to maximize the impairment there. By doing it before the DEIS is released, they can discount the impairment DCF modelling to omit (or significantly reduce) CF from Phase 8 (which pencils out as have positive NPV - - as per IMC) because the fate of Phase 8 is still technically "uncertain". That's why they did it now, vs. YE 2014. Some other CPAs that invest in TC with me, concur that that would trim the discounting period. So that why they did that. To scrub away as much NBV (and future depreciation) that GAAP would allow.

      As for the future status, BLM is very informed into the status of mine, and what plans TC is cooking up regarding disclosure update of the broader MMPO. It's their job, sort of.

      If you can make money at current prices running a mine, you don't make even more money by shutting it down. The same cannot be said for Endako.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Go to SEDAR, select English, hit Search Database, click on Public Company (below - black box), type in Thompson Creek Metals in the Company Name Box, click on dropdown box on Document Type and select Technical Report - - NI 43-101 (its the last one), back up the date to before August 2007 to catch all the technical reports TC has done in recent times, click Search.

      A whole bunch of docs come up. The larger files are the reports are the technical reports. There are three technical reports from 2007 to 2011 on the TC mine. The one that is 4,930K is the latest tech report on the TC mine, which was filed on Feb 24, 2011. Good luck.

      The last permitted phase of TC Mine is Phase 7. Not date dependent regarding 2016 - meaningless.
      The decision was supposed to come out in Jan 2013, that got pushed to Jan 2014, and now the date is March 21, 2014. That's just the Draft EIS. March 21, 2014 is a firm date. Several days afterward, BLM will update their TC-related EIS website, to include a .pdf of the DEIS. I have contacted BLM and USFS several times over the past several months for information. The timetables for resolution of this is on USFS Salmon-Challis SOPA Project page. It's hard to find. All this regulatory stuff gets wrapped up by April 2015. BLM does not expect litigation over their EIS. 99.99999% both MMPO and land swap are resolved favorably. I don't even think the moron clown analysts that follow TC are even aware of this process. If they heard about it in the past, they forgot all about it. This process (and the delays) are what is really causing the delay in mine sequencing to Phase 8. Low prices are just an excuse (in reality) as the geologist who wrote the latest NI 43-101 (IMC) said Phase 8 economics are favorable even at prices as low as $10 a lb. Economics are improved if Phase 8E is deferred. So the cost excuse is lame.

      Getting over the EIS hump is mandatory before TC Mine can proceed to any of Phase 8. BLM is not shutting down the mine.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to ultraific3
      • Wow, a lot of stuff you have thrown at me Have worked through most of it. The SOPA mentions implementation in 4/2015. You mentioned this is causing the mine sequencing delay. More specifically, here are 3 questions: 1) Can TC do any modified stripping now of Ph 8 without the above SOPA? 2) If the answer to Q1 is no, does TC have to wait until 4/2015 before they can begin such stripping even though it's approved on Mar 21st? 3) Assuming approval, how quickly do you believe TC will begin stripping. If this is approved on March 21, do you expect some announcement from TC sometime shortly thereafter i.e rescind the C&M announcement.

        I agree very few analysts are familiar with the details of this SOPA/EIS stuff. All they heard was the TC mine is going on C&M. To them that means TC is getting out of the moly business due to the poor moly prices and their belief that TC's precious funds need to be devoted to MM. I don't recall a single question about the moly business at the CC.

        Letting investors and analysts know that moly will be a viable operation beyond 12/2014 will be very important. Many of the followers on this Board don't have moly in their models after 2014 and those that do only have it through June of 2015. TC's moly business can generate $100mil net annually at current prices. Every 5% increase in price is another 5mil.