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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 25, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    FCX posted Q2-2014 results today

    They managed to realize $13.43 / lb. for molybdenum sales for Q2.

    This will be a bit higher than what TC will realize, but not by much.
    FCX has a different downstream moly product mix than that of TC, so this results in FCX capturing more revenue from sale of moly catalysts, which TC does not directly produce.

    Good news for TC if FCX is realizing this much on a per lb. basis.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I have assumed a 6 week lag from the spot price and assumed a shipment on the 15th of each month. So going back six weeks from 4/15, 5/15, and 6/15 I come up with around $12.10 for the quarterly average. At that price, and using $40M in depreciation, I come to $23.1M in adjusted earning ($.10/share). Using just $13 I come to $31.0M in adjusted earnings ($.14/share). Maybe it will be a touch shy of $13.45 but hopefully at a minimum $13.

      I'm using 226M shares for the quarter as well........likely a touch high, but trying to be conservative.

      Thanks Ultra....I think that bodes well for us in 7 trading days....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to rpicbc
      • Three shipments of moly...........?!?

        Way off...

        TC does not ship moly that way.

        They send (and buy concentrate) that goes to Langeloth Metallurgical Co. ("LMC"), the concentrate is processed into oxide, trioxide, ferromoly, HPD, etc.

        Then it's packaged into either drums or super sacks.

        Then it's warehoused, until purchase order release dates start rolling around based on the contractual purchase orders in queue.

        Then it's shipped.

        They ship 6 days a week.

        You're confused with Mt. Milligan.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • FCX also settled the dispute with Indonesia (for now). Turn on the copper spigots!

    • You are definitely more knowledgeable about these things and I can only hope you're right. This is one of the things everyone is guessing at when they come up with what TC's second quarter numbers are going to be. Nice to think it's looking accurate. I think we need at least .12 for the quarter to garner much good press.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to bestguesser
      • Actual TC pricing will depend on shipment timing as well, and mix of oxide to ferro.

        Regarding EPS numbers, we need to get some clarity on how much depr. will occur on a quarterly basis. Q1 numbers were funny in that MM didn't go into commercial production until 2/17/14. So that reduced Q1 depr. attributable to MM.

        Cash-flow and liquidity picture will be a big story for Q2 as well, so don't blow that off.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Yes, I had TC closer to 12.80 - another 50 cents on 7+mil lbs is another 3.5mil to the bottomline.

 
TC
1.27+0.030(+2.42%)Jan 26 4:01 PMEST

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