This stock has only downside left in it. There is no play to the up side, unless your and 1/8 or 1/4 point player.
Wait for the volume to dry up and you will have a price at least 1/2 of what it is now. This is a no brainer.
Look at the revenue direction. Look at the P/S. This thing should have a P/S of < 1.
Save your money for a later day if you believe that optics is here to stay. There is a glut of stuff on the market from the dot bomb kaboomb. There is no money to buy a lot of new equipment at this time, and there is a big equipment overhang.
You need to wait for the technology to change significantly or the equipment overhang to dry up. Both will happen within 18 months. (twice as fast at 1/2 the price).
For now the CIEN price needs to catch up with reality. The price is still in the dot bomb hangover phase.
CIONIS will be an acquisition target later this year or early next. The deal will bring between $1.5B and 1.75B -- $2B, tips. The details, including the identity of the acquirer, will shock and surprise. Following the merger, there will be considerable consolidation. Nettles and Smith will be excluded from management in the new company.
You've lots of time to make your position, as further downside is expected due to another dismal quarter, and continued weakness in optical networking. Wait until Fall '02, then consider buying 2004 or 2005 LEAPS instead of taking a long position. It should make an easy double, if not a triple.
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