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Ciena Corporation Message Board

  • agassibro03 agassibro03 Sep 3, 2013 3:51 PM Flag

    MKM Partners

    Ciena Corp.: FY3Q13 earnings preview; MKM Partners reiterates Buy rating and $28 tgt (20.25 -0.92) : MKM Partners reiterate its Buy rating and $28 price tgt in front of FY3Q13 due out 9/4 pre-market, which the firm thinks should be a positive catalyst for the shares. Based on MKM Partners' global service provider checks it believes co should meet or slightly exceed MKM/consensus revenue estimates of $531 mln/$532 mln (+5% q/q, +12% y/y), likely with a book-to-bill at or above 1.0. With regards to the 4QFY13 guidance, it sees probable upside to the consensus revenue forecast of $551 mln and feels comfortable with its higher $558 mln (+5% q/q, +20% y/y) estimate.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • the 5% q/q guide -which puts revs above the $551 Q4 consensus- seems right.
      2009- Q3 $164mm revs. Q4 176mm. Up 7%.
      2010- Q3 $389mm revs. Q4 417mm. Up 5%.
      2011- Q3 $435mm revs. Q4 455mm. Up 4%
      2012- Q3 $474mm revs. Q4 465mm. Down 1%.

      2012 was impacted by transitional issues at both T and VZ which saw revs falling a combined 34% q/q . That transition is well behind them. Since then Ciena has been adding other tier 1 carriers, and the expanded customer base should lessen the quarter to quarter volatility.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • And the chart looks great, which is why I went long before the close. I think we can see $23 or more tomorrow or Thurs.

 
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20.92+0.01(+0.05%)Feb 27 4:02 PMEST

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