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Ciena Corporation Message Board

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  • cleent cleent Sep 15, 1998 10:53 PM Flag

    In at 13

    It seems to me that you believe Cien will go up
    within a week. Everything sounds so good but why it
    still drop down to $13. I suspect that it has not
    reached the bottom, We don't see any stronger support at
    this price. The whole Telecom section is on downside.
    As I always say, don't put your emotion and dream on
    the real world, which is a reason you will lose money
    in the casino.

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    • I've been long for a couple of days looking for a
      technical rebound that may or may not come. At 15 cents
      down from period a year ago 31 cents, this stock is
      trading at over 20 times extrapolated earnings. A PE
      ratio of 15 makes this a $9 stock.
      With window
      dressing at end of month, and Oct just around the corner,
      it does not look good for Cienna. Look at PAIR,
      AFCI, both similar type companies - both trading in the
      single digits. The market always overreacts, and the
      overreaction isn't over. Just wait until tax loss selling
      begins. I think Cienna management is a little tired of
      this takeover game, and won't be looking for a partner
      anytime soon. More shareholder law suits will emerge. Dow
      has been up three days in a row - Cienna down three
      days in a row. People sell their losers and buy
      winners on dips. Nobody is buying Cienna now. If you're
      long, you better be selling, or selling deep in the
      money calls about three months out. After Christmas, I
      plan to load up on this one for good January bounce.
      As for now, I'll stop out below $12 1/2.

      • 2 Replies to MissouriTigersFan
      • Why would you go long on a stock and then explain to us all these reasons why others would not be buying? I'm just wondering, it doesn't make sense to me.

        Regards,
        Dave

      • If anyone gets WSJ, please read the article
        on
        Teleservices companies. I see lot of parallels to
        those
        stock and todays networking stocks.

        The summary
        of article is in 1995-96 teleservices
        companies
        couldn't do anything wrong wall street gave
        them PEs of
        40-50 they all went public at 10-13, rose
        to
        60-70-80s. And when one after the other started saying

        there is lot of competition in the market. They all
        started
        to come down very rapidly and they are all trading
        at
        $4-5. I don't think Ciena would go that low. But there
        is
        something to be leared from that. Question that you should
        be
        asking is, is this stock fairly valued, undervalued??


        Just because stock comes down from $90 to $13 doesn't
        mean
        its a buy. Also PE should not be considered alone.
        You need to
        look at competition, margins etc. All
        those things point that
        Ciena is fairly valued and
        there isn't much upshot from here....

        just my
        $0.02

 
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