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  • spook2b spook2b • Jan 11, 2013 7:50 PM Flag

    comment on NOLs from today's release

    In the course of the strategic alternatives review, the Company was presented with proposals by parties attracted to the Company due to its non-operating assets, in particular its tax attributes. The Board intends to continue to review such opportunities and to explore ways to accelerate the realization of the value of the Company's federal net operating loss carry forwards, which had a balance of $2.0 billion at July 31, 2012.

    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    I did a quick back of the napkin calculation on this, and based on MLNKs 44M shares, I came up with something like $5-10 per share. I might have missed a decimal somewhere, and I know that NOLs can expire before they get used.

    Investing777cpa, can you give us a better read on valuing NOLs?

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    • investing777cpa investing777cpa • Jan 13, 2013 2:54 PM Flag

      Yes I have been thinking about this...

      The basic corporate rate is 34 percent on $2b that's $680 million in potential tax benefit divided by 44 millon shares outstanding or $15 a share. (and there are some state & local benefits to be had).

      NOLs can be carried over for 20 years but there are limitations on how much can be used in an acquisition. Simply put the limit is base on the purchase price so the tax benefit can be substantially reduced so that at $10 per share buy out there is a $3.4 per share tax benefit. I am sure there are ways to use the NOL (buying a profitable co) that are above my experience.

      NBV is $158/44 = $3.6 + 3.4 = 7.0 so a buy out at $10 would included $3 in "goodwill"; a little rich for this Company at this time. But sales are say $800 so a $10 buyout is .55 of revenue ($10 x 44/800)...I say this is lower multiple. HNH and Peerless was looking to get in about $5 and the pro's said .... I am thinking ten would do it. Hence the Company made a good decision to move forward for now...

      Let me know what you think of my math...and let hope for $4 soon...nothing on Friday seemed a negative surprise...HNH and Peerless had backed out months ago...so the "not seeking a buyer" is no big deal...having answers and cost cutting are big positives...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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