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EZchip Semiconductor Limited Message Board

  • charts_lover charts_lover Mar 21, 2007 10:44 AM Flag

    another 1.3million shares free up for sale tomorrow?

    Doesn't tomorrow 3/22 free up another 1.3 million shares for sale, held by the original investors? I'm wondering if today's rise is the market makers raising prices today before the selling volume comes in tomorrow. Does anyone have a good reason for today's run up, against the market? TIA

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    • after the next sec filing showing the vc's selling of the shares that freed up 3/22, we'll have one more date to look out for ahead...

      the final 1/3rd of the vc's shares free up for sale in june, on the 22nd i believe. it is in the sec filings for sure.

      between these 2 events freeing up almost 3 million shares to be sold, and the q1 2007 report coming soon, volatility should pick up again.

      i think the key is going to be the q1 report coming in mid may sometime, based on previous reporting dates.

      then the issue to be traded around will be total dilution after all ezchip share swaps (for lnop stock), and a diluting secondary offering to raise capital.

      • 1 Reply to grumrnan05
      • after the upcoming sec filing showing the vc's having sold some of their shares that freed up 3/22, we'll have one more date to look out for ahead........

        the final one third of the vc's shares free up for sale on june 20th. between these 2 events freeing up almost 3 million shares to be sold, and the q1 2007 report coming soon, volatility should pick up again.

        i think the key is going to be the q1 report coming in mid may sometime, based on previous reporting dates.

        then the next issue to be traded around will be total dilution after all ezchip share swaps (for lnop stock), and a diluting secondary offering to raise capital.

    • burnp

    • I think we agree on everything but the short term. I am focused on the next 1-3 months with my trading shares. I have sold them again today for a nice 3+ point profit and will buy them back when I feel we have bottomed for the cycle again. Good luck with your holdings.

    • now what sense would it make for the "market makers" to run the price up before 1.3 mil shares came for sale? think about it; so the supposed market makers buy stock, get long at ever increasing prices, then on monday, 1.3 mil shares go for sale and drive the price right back down in their face.......so the "market makers" then are long stock at 13.5, 14, maybe 14.5, and the 1.3mil shares have forced the price back down to 13........doesn't make sense

    • Charts_lover, here is a copy of what I wrote 3/21/07

      "I don't know how you can look at that chart & get bearish. Everything on that chart looks great to me. The stochastics look just like they did last Aug when LNOP was beginning a run up from 8 to 15. The obv is turning up as the stock is turning up. Both the macd & the rsi have turned up & are signaling an up move here.

      If you want to get really excited here, look at a 10 yr weekly chart. If LNOP can take out the 2 previous hi's in the 15 - 16 area, there is not much in the way of resistance till it gets to the old double top of 43. I think it will take out the 15-16 area, & then let the fun begin.

      Hate to talk fundamentals, but it looks to me like we are approaching the long awaited time when they might start actually reporting some quarterly results with significant rev's & [eventually] eps. The comps should start being great.

      I added to my position yesterday. Don't bail after this long wait. This a different animal than it has been over the past few years. " [See my post above]




      This explains why I was bullish then -- & I am even more bullish now. The macd has turned up & is still low in its range. The rsi is moving up & above its midpoint. You mentioned that the stoch's & obv have peaked. That is misleading. They can stay in the "overbought range for a long time if the stock continues to go up. The second chart you gave me to look at on 3/21 omitted all the bullish technical indicators & changed to shorter term indicators that move to the top of their range fast but have little bearing on the intermediate term trends.

      It still appears to me that we are in the process of breaking out of a long base [dating back to 2001] at the 15-16 level. If we do that, we could go much higher. Also, like I mentioned above, the fundamentals are finally beginning to improve to the point that LNOP is becoming a real company that should shortly have significant fast growing revenues. This should support the big move to the upside that the charts are signalling.

      You really should look at a 10 yr chart.

      jher333

    • jher333, yes this is what I was waiting for. The 6 month downtrend channel has been broken. Notice how we popped so fast after finally making it above that resistance line? Frankly I just wish it looked a little bit better though. The size of the trades and the way it happened again today reminds me of last November's new high before the correction, so I don't fully trust it yet. Yet.

      I'm always bullish on this stock for the long hual but with a skeptic's eye in the short run. I'd love to be wrong and see us break $20, but I would not be surprised to see the same VC selling drag us down again from today's or Monday's high. Stochastics & Money Flow peaked today and unless there is real news to support this move, we could easily fall back down below $14 again next week, maybe even below $12 again soon if the market fails to break new highs and leads the way down against all the experts' predictions (what else are they going to say so they can unload shares to "dip buyers"?).

      LNOP below $12 again, I'd be likely to load the boat with more trading shares than ever before. But for now, I'm fully invested at $11.83 for my trading shares basis and looking to take some trading profits. I have way too much of this little stock right now for me to hold too long. I'll probably trim that back starting Monday, unless something important is uncovered to support today's volume.

      What are YOUR thoughts about today's action and the size of the trades on no news? Anything besides the obvious "it's up on high volume" cheerleader type comments? Any insight that digs deeper into the reason for the move and the likelihood of it continuing next week?

    • Do you think the previous batch ( also of 1.3 mil shares?) have been sold?
      (Hint: check average daily volume data.)

      No, I do not either.

      The similar concern has been raised by m-b-m,the stock price has been stable or better(from my perspective, anyway),I got a few more shares,perhaps will sell a portion soon,as I see some very appealing(to me!) opportunities today.

      Regards.
      P.S. And your charts are advising you to do what?

 
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